Our involvement in the war was predicated on the fact that Ho Chi Minh’s government was a puppet of the Soviet Union. How our intelligence service came to this conclusion seems to be similar to how it has recently decided that Russia was the source of the leaked DNC emails.
“Since December 19, 1946, there have been continuous conflicts between French forces and the nationalist government of Vietnam. This government Is a coalition in which avowed communists hold influential positions. Although the French admit the influence of this government, they have consistently refused to deal with its leader, Ho Chi Minh, on the grounds that he is a communist.
“To date the Vietnam press and radio have not adopted an anti-American position. It is rather the French colonial press that has been strongly anti-American and has freely accused the U.S. of imperialism in Indochina to the point of approximating the official Moscow position. Although the Vietnam radio has been closely watched for a new position toward the U.S., no change has appeared so far. Nor does there seem to have been any split within the coalition government of Vietnam.
“Evaluation. If there is a Moscow-directed conspiracy in Southeast Asia, Indochina is an anomaly so far. Possible explanations. are:
“No rigid directives have been issued by Moscow.
“The Vietnam government considers that it has no rightest elements that must be purged.
“The Vietnam Communists are not subservient to the foreign policies pursued by Moscow
“A special dispensation for the Vietnam government has been arranged in Moscow.
“Of these possibilities, the first and fourth seem most likely.”
Our “intelligence” community seems to start with an answer, and then explain away the reasons that they cannot find evidence to support the assumed conclusion. The absence of evidence seems to be as strong support for their conclusion as finding actual evidence would have been.
I have always thought that a principle of science was that if you did an experiment that allowed you to draw the same conclusion no matter the results of the experiment, then the experiment was completely worthless.