{"id":13865,"date":"2013-06-09T10:26:24","date_gmt":"2013-06-09T14:26:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/?p=13865"},"modified":"2013-06-09T10:26:24","modified_gmt":"2013-06-09T14:26:24","slug":"for-retirees-a-million-dollar-illusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/2013\/06\/09\/for-retirees-a-million-dollar-illusion\/","title":{"rendered":"For Retirees, a Million-Dollar Illusion"},"content":{"rendered":"

When I read The New York Times<\/em> headline For Retirees, a Million-Dollar Illusion<\/strong><\/a>, I knew this article would have the usual amount of baloney in it.<\/p>\n

But then stock market risk comes into play. Over the long term, stocks tend to outperform bonds, but typically fluctuate much more wildly. There\u2019s a good chance that at some point, stock investments will produce major losses that many people simply can\u2019t tolerate.<\/p>\n

“We find that people tend to think of losses in their portfolios based on the peak value they\u2019ve ever had,\u201d Mr. Masters said. So Bernstein calculates the probability of what it calls a \u201cpeak-to-trough loss\u201d of at least 20 percent in its sample portfolios.<\/p>\n

For those with an 80\/20 mix of stocks and bonds, it found a 60 percent probability of such a loss over the investors\u2019 lifetime. And, of course, some market declines far exceed 20 percent.<\/p>\n

“Large losses may not be something that people are willing to live with, even if they are associated with higher returns over the long term,” Mr. Masters said. \u201cWhich is why we\u2019d recommend holding some stocks, but not as much as 80 percent, for most people.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What is missing from a featured place in this article is the role of stock dividends in a portfolio.\u00a0 If you have a reliable stream of dividends coming to you from quality stocks, then a peak to trough decline of 20% in market value of your stocks is something you can ignore.<\/p>\n

At the current low interest rates, it would be foolish to be invested in any large proportion of bonds.\u00a0 You know their value will decline and the stream of interest payments is insufficient already.<\/p>\n

With Social Security and a tiny pension, I find that a nest egg of the size being discussed here is totally adequate.\u00a0 With most of my nest egg in tax deferred accounts my annual income tax liability is a tiny fraction of what it was when I was working.\u00a0 And I also do not have to save for retirement.<\/p>\n

I can live quite well on substantially less income than I needed when I was working.<\/p>\n

Maybe The New York Times<\/em> needs to get some people who have retired successfully to be writing these articles instead of working “experts” who do not seem to understand what retired living is all about.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When I read The New York Times headline For Retirees, a Million-Dollar Illusion, I knew this article would have the usual amount of baloney in it. But then stock market risk comes into play. Over the long term, stocks tend to outperform bonds, but typically fluctuate much more wildly. There\u2019s a good chance that at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[166],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-13865","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-stevegsposts","7":"czr-hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13865"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13867,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13865\/revisions\/13867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}