{"id":16261,"date":"2014-02-27T08:03:50","date_gmt":"2014-02-27T13:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/?p=16261"},"modified":"2016-06-10T11:50:19","modified_gmt":"2016-06-10T15:50:19","slug":"are-democrats-who-propose-cuts-to-social-security-stupid-or-just-doing-risk-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/2014\/02\/27\/are-democrats-who-propose-cuts-to-social-security-stupid-or-just-doing-risk-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Democrats who Propose Cuts to Social Security \u201cStupid\u201d or Just Doing Risk-Analysis?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Naked Capitalism<\/em> has the story Gaius Publius: Are Democrats who Propose Cuts to Social Security \u201cStupid\u201d or Just Doing Risk-Analysis?<\/a><\/strong> It’s not a pretty story.<\/p>\n

I’ll give you the finish to whet your appetite for reading the article.<\/p>\n

Naturally there\u2019s a risk with this strategy. Consider the 2012 presidential election. That 4% popular vote differential was not much of a margin, and if Romney hadn\u2019t become \u201cMr. 47%\u201d in most people\u2019s eyes, it\u2019s conceivable he could have pulled closer. But there\u2019s just no way the Rubins and the hedgies and all their minions are going to allow an anti-billionaire \u201cWarren populist\u201d into the general election. They have<\/em> to stick with a free-market type.<\/p>\n

So the very best they can hope for is a newbie who can lie, pretend to be something he\u2019s not, a man or woman without a track record. (Remind you of someone? Obama in 2008, Kid \u201cHope and Change\u201d and \u201cYes We Can\u201d?) That brings out the Hopeful and swells the numbers. Otherwise they just have to go with what\u2019s available and roll the dice. By 2012 no one was Hoping, certainly not in great numbers, not after four years of Grand Bargains and promises betrayed<\/a><\/strong> (do click; it\u2019s a stunning list). Many were just voting not-Romney, those who voted at all.<\/p>\n

So yes, there\u2019s some risk to this neoliberal calculation and strategy. In 2012 they took the risk and it paid off, in a 4% popular vote victory. Could the strategy still lose occasionally? Yes, but again, given the demographics and with appropriate pushback in the states, it\u2019s increasingly less likely.<\/p>\n

And even if it does produce a loss, consider the alternative from the Rubin side of things. What do you do? (1) Put a real FDR in the White House and let him challenge the whole billionaire system, or (2) risk having to count your money in electoral exile for a just few years, then try again?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see the Rubins of the world ever making the first choice. And I do think they\u2019ve really thought this through. To return to where we started, very few of these men and women are stupid.<\/p>\n

Side thought<\/strong> \u2014 Keep the above in mind when scoping out the 2016 race. We have a neoliberal front-runner<\/a><\/strong> with a track record and an unwillingness to speak on most issues. Where\u2019s the turnout going to come from?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/pre>\n
I should add that it is always dangerous to attribute motives to people when you have not asked them for an explanation of their motives.\u00a0 However, if you want to figure out if their behavior is counterproductive or not, you do have to try to figure out what they intend to produce.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Naked Capitalism has the story Gaius Publius: Are Democrats who Propose Cuts to Social Security \u201cStupid\u201d or Just Doing Risk-Analysis? It’s not a pretty story. I’ll give you the finish to whet your appetite for reading the article. Naturally there\u2019s a risk with this strategy. Consider the 2012 presidential election. That 4% popular vote differential […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[177,166],"tags":[35],"class_list":{"0":"post-16261","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-greenbergs-law-of-counterproductive-behavior","7":"category-stevegsposts","8":"tag-social-security","9":"czr-hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16261"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16265,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261\/revisions\/16265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}