{"id":20240,"date":"2015-04-07T15:49:30","date_gmt":"2015-04-07T19:49:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/?p=20240"},"modified":"2015-04-07T15:53:57","modified_gmt":"2015-04-07T19:53:57","slug":"draghis-doom-loops-more-than-just-the-euthanasia-of-the-rentiers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/2015\/04\/07\/draghis-doom-loops-more-than-just-the-euthanasia-of-the-rentiers\/","title":{"rendered":"Draghi\u2019s Doom Loop(s): More than just the euthanasia of the rentiers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>New Economic Perspectives<\/em> has the article <a title=\"New Economic Perspectives article\" href=\"http:\/\/neweconomicperspectives.org\/2015\/04\/draghis-doom-loops-more-than-just-the-euthanasia-of-the-rentiers.html\" target=\"_blank\">Draghi\u2019s Doom Loop(s): More than just the euthanasia of the rentiers<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Rather, the implementation of QE with a large and increasing share of the bond market displaying negative yields to maturity (NYTM) presents a number of serious challenges to financial stability in the eurozone.<\/p>\n<p>To cut to the chase, the ECB\u2019s QE and NDRP [negative deposit rate policy] measures may be setting investors up for a discontinuous price event, much like what was experienced in the equity market meltdown back in October 1987. Even if a disruptive yield spike is avoided, or even contained and reversed by ECB heroics, pursuing QE under NYTM market conditions may lead to a significant dampening down of bank and insurance company profitability. In the extreme, the solvency of key eurozone financial institutions could once again come under question. This could further complicate the ECB\u2019s chances of achieving their 2% inflation goal, as it may dampen the bank lending channel as a key transmission mechanism for unconventional monetary policy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As if you didn&#8217;t have enough to worry about here comes a game of musical chairs based on the greater fool theory.\u00a0 You don&#8217;t want to be the target greater fool in this scenario.\u00a0 This is one reason why I just do not understand how anybody could be invested in long duration bonds at the time that they are at a market peak.\u00a0 I know they keep climbing beyond any previous existing peak, you have to ask yourself how long can this go on.\u00a0 Well, it&#8217;s not really a question of how long it can go on, but more of a question of will you know to get out before the sudden large drop in bond prices.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe if you watch your bonds like a hawk 24\/7 365 days a year, you could be successful. I know that I do not follow my investments closely enough to play in this game.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New Economic Perspectives has the article Draghi\u2019s Doom Loop(s): More than just the euthanasia of the rentiers. Rather, the implementation of QE with a large and increasing share of the bond market displaying negative yields to maturity (NYTM) presents a number of serious challenges to financial stability in the eurozone. To cut to the chase, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[166],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-20240","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-stevegsposts","7":"czr-hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20240"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20243,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20240\/revisions\/20243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}