{"id":20943,"date":"2015-06-06T10:06:06","date_gmt":"2015-06-06T14:06:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/?p=20943"},"modified":"2015-06-06T10:06:06","modified_gmt":"2015-06-06T14:06:06","slug":"ilargi-qe-breeds-instability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/2015\/06\/06\/ilargi-qe-breeds-instability\/","title":{"rendered":"Ilargi: QE Breeds Instability"},"content":{"rendered":"

Naked Capitalism<\/em> has the article Ilargi: QE Breeds Instability<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nThis is the logic behind the actual \u201cliquidity trap\u201d presented by Keynes in his general theory. Specifically, Chapter 15 entitled \u201cThe Psychological and Business Incentives To Liquidity.\u201d Here he argues that every fall in the interest rate relative to what is commonly believed to be a \u201csafe\u201d rate increases the \u201crisk of illiquidity\u201d. The the \u201crisk of illiquidity\u201d is the risk of holding an asset not easily convertible into money at \u201cbook\u201d value (this also means an asset is more or less \u201cliquid\u201d based on the relative easiness to convert into money \u201cbook\u201d value). Further, rather then seeing interest as a return to \u201cwaiting\u201d, Keynes argues that it is \u201ca sort of insurance premium to offset the risk of loss on capital account\u201d.
\n.
\n.
\n.
\n\u2026.if the interest rate rises too fast those \u201cmiddle-class people\u201d will take much larger losses on the value of many of their assets than they will get back in interest\u2026.That is without even taking into account the higher borrowing costs that many would most likely face. Remember also that at such low interests rates \u201ctoo fast\u201d is actually a very small increase. To go back to Keynes:<\/p>\n

\n If, however, the rate of interest is already as low as 2 per cent., the running yield will only offset a rise in it of as little as 0.04 per cent. per annum. This, indeed, is perhaps the chief obstacle to a fall in the rate of interest to a very low level. Unless reasons are believed to exist why future experience will be very different from past experience, a long-term rate of interest of (say) 2 per cent. leaves more to fear than to hope, and offers, at the same time, a running yield which is only sufficient to offset a very small measure of fear.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n

If you own bonds for “safety”, you’d better understand what is being said here. I cannot understanding why one invests in a commodity that is at its absolute tippity top in price, has nowhere to go but down, and does not pay you enough interest to cover the risk. How anyone can think this is safe, just defies logic to me?<\/p>\n

Remember that this investment advice is worth every penny you paid for it, and not a cent more. So ignore it if that is what you think best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Naked Capitalism has the article Ilargi: QE Breeds Instability. This is the logic behind the actual \u201cliquidity trap\u201d presented by Keynes in his general theory. Specifically, Chapter 15 entitled \u201cThe Psychological and Business Incentives To Liquidity.\u201d Here he argues that every fall in the interest rate relative to what is commonly believed to be a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[166],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-stevegsposts","czr-hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20943"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20943\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20944,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20943\/revisions\/20944"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}