{"id":28472,"date":"2020-04-24T13:19:10","date_gmt":"2020-04-24T17:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/?p=28472"},"modified":"2020-04-24T13:52:55","modified_gmt":"2020-04-24T17:52:55","slug":"planning-for-a-rainy-day-not-allowed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/2020\/04\/24\/planning-for-a-rainy-day-not-allowed\/","title":{"rendered":"Planning For A Rainy Day Not Allowed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A meme that is running around on the internet these days has prompted me to write this post.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align:center\">\n<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/NikkiHaley.jpg\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/NikkiHaley-300x279.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"279\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-28473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/NikkiHaley-300x279.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/NikkiHaley-150x140.jpg 150w, https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/NikkiHaley-768x715.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/NikkiHaley-270x250.jpg 270w, https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/NikkiHaley.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<pre><\/pre>\n<p>No business can afford to plan for a rainy day. Any company that has a large rainy day fund will be raided by vulture capitalists so that the vulture capitalists can pocket the rainy day fund.<\/p>\n<p>The rules that allow corporate raiding are the very rules that need to be changed to make our &#8220;capitalist&#8221; system work again.<\/p>\n<p>I think much of the current environment was created by Michael Milken.  <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Michael_Milken#High-yield_bonds_and_leveraged_buyouts\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">WikiPedia <\/a>has the details that are relevant.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>By the mid-1980s, Milken&#8217;s network of high-yield bond buyers (notably Fred Carr&#8217;s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Executive_Life_Insurance_Company\" title=\"Executive Life Insurance Company\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Executive Life Insurance Company<\/a> and Tom Spiegel&#8217;s Columbia Savings &amp; Loan) had reached a size that enabled him to raise large amounts of money quickly.\n<\/p>\n<p>This money-raising ability also facilitated the activities of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Leveraged_buyout\" title=\"Leveraged buyout\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">leveraged buyout<\/a> (LBO) firms such as <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Kohlberg_Kravis_Roberts\" title=\"Kohlberg Kravis Roberts\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kohlberg Kravis Roberts<\/a> and of the so-called &#8220;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Greenmail\" title=\"Greenmail\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">greenmailers<\/a>&#8220;. Most of them were armed with a &#8220;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Highly_confident_letter\" title=\"Highly confident letter\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">highly confident letter<\/a>&#8221; from Drexel, a tool Drexel&#8217;s corporate finance wing crafted that promised to raise the necessary debt in time to fulfill the buyer&#8217;s obligations. It carried no legal status, but by this time, Milken had a reputation for being able to make markets for any bonds that he underwrote. For this reason, &#8220;highly confident letters&#8221; were considered to reliably demonstrate capacity to pay.<sup id=\"cite_ref-23\" class=\"reference\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Michael_Milken#cite_note-23\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">[23]<\/a><\/sup><sup id=\"cite_ref-HiConTimes_24-0\" class=\"reference\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Michael_Milken#cite_note-HiConTimes-24\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">[24]<\/a><\/sup> Supporters, like <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/George_Gilder\" title=\"George Gilder\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">George Gilder<\/a> in his book, <i>Telecosm<\/i> (2000), state that Milken was &#8220;a key source of the organizational changes that have impelled economic growth over the last twenty years. Most striking was the productivity surge in capital, as Milken<span class=\"nowrap\">&nbsp;<\/span>&#8230; and others took the vast sums trapped in old-line businesses and put them back into the markets.&#8221;<sup id=\"cite_ref-25\" class=\"reference\"><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Michael_Milken#cite_note-25\">[25]<\/a><\/sup>\n<\/p>\n<p>Amongst his significant detractors have been <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Martin_Fridson\" title=\"Martin Fridson\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Martin Fridson<\/a> formerly of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Merrill_Lynch\" class=\"mw-redirect\" title=\"Merrill Lynch\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Merrill Lynch<\/a> and author <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ben_Stein\" title=\"Ben Stein\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ben Stein<\/a>. Milken&#8217;s high-yield &#8220;pioneer&#8221; status has proved dubious as studies show &#8220;original issue&#8221; high-yield issues were common during and after the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Great_Depression\" title=\"Great Depression\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Great Depression<\/a>. Milken himself points out that high-yield bonds go back hundreds of years, having been issued by the Massachusetts Bay Colony in the 17th century and by America&#8217;s first Treasury Secretary <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/wiki\/Alexander_Hamilton\" title=\"Alexander Hamilton\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alexander Hamilton<\/a>. Others such as <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/w\/index.php?title=Stanford_Phelps&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1\" class=\"new\" title=\"Stanford Phelps (page does not exist)\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Stanford Phelps<\/a>, an early co-associate and rival at Drexel, have also contested his credit as having pioneered the modern high-yield market.<sup class=\"noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact\" style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">[<i><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Wikipedia:Citation_needed\" title=\"Wikipedia:Citation needed\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span title=\"This claim needs references to reliable sources. (April 2018)\">citation needed<\/span><\/a><\/i>]<\/sup>\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I read &#8220;productivity surge in capital&#8221; as meaning doing away with the &#8220;wasteful&#8221; activities of &#8220;saving for a rainy day&#8221;. Other &#8220;wasteful&#8221; activities might include providing adequate funding of pension plans, and paying workers a decent wage. These type of &#8220;wasteful&#8221; activities might be what Nicholas Nassim Taleb calls making systems <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Antifragility\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">anti-fragile<\/a>. Doing away with these activities makes a company more &#8220;efficient&#8221; and &#8220;productive&#8221; in the short term, but makes a company highly susceptible to going under in a &#8220;black swan&#8221; event that could not have been foreseen.<\/p>\n<p>I also note that &#8220;and others took the vast sums trapped in old-line businesses and put them back into the markets&#8221; were not &#8220;trapped&#8221; under a mattress in old-line businesses.  If the funds were held in bank accounts or in bonds, the money was already being recirculated in loans that the banks made or use that the bond sellers made of the proceeds from selling bonds.<\/p>\n<p>From the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Antifragility\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">WikiPedia antifragility article<\/a> we have the following:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\n<strong>Antifragility <\/strong>is a property of systems that increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures. It is a concept developed by Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, Antifragile, and in technical papers. As Taleb explains in his book, antifragility is fundamentally different from the concepts of resiliency (i.e. the ability to recover from failure) and robustness (that is, the ability to resist failure). The concept has been applied in risk analysis, physics, molecular biology, transportation planning, engineering, Aerospace (NASA), and computer science.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I was thinking that there could be an organization (the Federal Government?) where a company could put its rainy day fund such that the funds cannot be released back to the company unless they are used for an actual rainy day, not to line the pockets of the executives, corporate raiders, nor stock holders.  Actually, I suppose the current system of government bailouts of corporations is a form of having the rainy day fund in the hands of the government (more likely the hands of the Federal Reserve Bank which has no Congressionally mandated policy for how to disburse the rainy day funds).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A meme that is running around on the internet these days has prompted me to write this post. No business can afford to plan for a rainy day. Any company that has a large rainy day fund will be raided by vulture capitalists so that the vulture capitalists can pocket the rainy day fund. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[166],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-28472","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-stevegsposts","7":"czr-hentry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28472"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28472\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28484,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28472\/revisions\/28484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssgreenberg.name\/PoliticsBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}