Monthly Archives: December 2010


White House White Board: Tax Cuts, Unemployment Insurance & Jobs

In this YouTube video, White House White Board: Tax Cuts, Unemployment Insurance & Jobs, “…Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, discusses [makes a sad attempt at justifying] the President’s compromise framework on tax cuts, unemployment insurance & job creation.”

I responded with this comment:

You left out the Republican accomplishment of defunding Social Security.

You left out the Republican accomplishment of making it harder to cut the deficit except on the backs of the people who can least afford it.

You left out the the Republican accomplishment of making any attempt at economic stimulus be as ineffective as possible.

You left out the Republican accomplishment of rolling the President on a fight they couldn’t win. Their electoral chances were toast if they blocked the unemployment insurance extension.

If Goolsbee as an adviser to the President came up with this justification on his own, then he is not serving the President or the country very well. I have heard that the influence of Milton Friedman at the University of Chicago School of Economics is waning, but I think I see some of the taint of Friedman in what Goolsbee is saying.


Bernie Sanders Filibusters Tax Breaks For Wealthy 2

December 13, 2010

If you didn’t catch the speech live, below are links to the three segments of the entire 8 ½ hour speech.

watch Sanders Filibuster: Part 1

watch Sanders Filibuster: Part 2

watch Sanders Filibuster: Part 3



December 10, 2010

Bernie Sanders has been filibustering in the Senate from about 10:30 this morning.

I am watching the proceedings right now, 5:30 PM EST on C-SPAN2.  You can see the Sanders’ filibuster live on the web.

He is reading constituent letters describing how hard people are working to heat their homes, feed their children, educate them for the future, and prepare for their own retirement.  The struggle that many of them describe  is heartbreaking.  Yet he is filibustering against tax breaks for wealthy bankers who were bailed out by these very tax payers who are struggling.

If you are thinking of giving President Obama a pass on the capitulation to the Republicans, I urge you to watch the filibuster.

If you live in Massachusetts, contact Senator Scott Brown and John Kerry to beg them to help Senator Sanders in his filibuster. At 6:53PM, I called Senator Kerry at (202) 224-2742 to urge him to get to the Senate floor to help Senator Sanders in his filibuster.


At 6:37 PM EST, Bernie Sanders is begging the electorate to call and write your Senators and Representatives to convince them to change their mind and work for a better bill than what the President has agreed to. He knows that he cannot do this by himself.


At 7:00PM EST, Senator Sanders ended his filibuster and a quorum call is being done. I only wish that he had called on other Senators to carry on his filibuster. I tried calling him, (202) 224-5141, with that suggestion, but his phone was busy.

If you live in Vermont, you can call him and send him email


Apparently Bernie Sanders says that this was just a long speech. It was not a filibuster. He did have a couple of Senators help him out When the time comes to have an actual filibuster, I hope he gets lots of help.


Obama’s Hostage Deal

This piece, Obama’s Hostage Deal, by Paul Krugman shows that after the initial outrage even Krugman is getting weak in the knees.

Well, concerns about the tax deal reflect realism, not purism: Mr. Obama is setting up another hostage situation a year down the road. And given that fact, the last thing we need is the kind of self-indulgent behavior he showed by lashing out at progressives who he feels aren’t giving him enough credit.

Tax cuts for the wealthy are not just bad policy, these tax cuts may be lethal  policy.

Obama should be recognizing that the growing disparity between the ultra wealthy and the rest of us will lead to the further decline of this country.  Anything that furthers this disparity, such as the tax cuts for the wealthy, just promotes an eventual collapse.  Obama promised us in the campaign that he would not let that happen.  I could read his lips when he said it.

The end of the era of US supremacy is hastened by these misguided policies.  Rather than an orderly transition into the era of Chinese supremacy, Obama may be promoting a chaotic transition.  Forget about maintaining our status.  That train has already left the station.

By talking only about the bad situation Obama might be creating in the future, Krugman doesn’t make the strongest case against what Obama has already done. If Obama had not set a pattern of letting the opposition establish the ground rules before he comes on the field, he wouldn’t have been faced with the bad set of options he faced.

I know we should have been warning Obama more loudly all along that we would hold him accountable if his behavior screwed up the situation. (Many people have been saying this, but some of us come to this realization too late.) We have to draw the line somewhere even if it is a bit late.  If we  wait until the next opportunity, then we will lose that one too.  It is our responsibility as citizens to hold Obama accountable for the mess he has gotten himself into.  We must let him know that we will continue to hold him responsible.

Obama was talking for months about his confidence that he could get compromise from Republicans while they were saying as loudly as they could that there would be no compromise. Instead, he should have been talking about the bad consequences for the Republicans if they continued to obstruct progress. By not letting Obama know that there would be bad consequences for his caving in, we have made the same mistake with Obama that he has made with the Republicans.

I believe that the evidence shows that Keynesian style stimulus can get the economy going again.  I also recognize that their is a risk associated with Keynesian stimulus.  The less reserve you build up (let alone a huge debt) during boom times, the more risk you run of default and collapse during the down times. By establishing the principle that taxes should be cut and never raised, Obama is giving himself no room to build that reserve that he must build when the economy recovers.

We might have barely gotten away with this, this time.  (Bush built a large debt in boom time, which made stimulus more risky to try during the recession.) However, if you set the stage for not taking the proper actions during the following boom, then you are signing the death warrant for our country’s economy.  There are a limited number of times we  can play this dangerous game before we lose.(Think Russian roulette.)

When I voted for Barack Obama, I thought he had the foresight to recognize this.  His current actions seem to show that his vision is much shorter range than I imagined.  Moreover, if he cannot see that his Social Security payroll tax holiday is the Republican’s trap to kill off Social Security, then this is just another example that he just isn’t doing the strategic thinking that he should be doing.


More on the Tax Deal

On Baseline Scenario, James Kwak writes More on the Tax Deal where he clarifies how Obama’s behavior comes under the heading of Greenberg’s Law of Counterproductive Behavior.

If we can infer people’s preferences from their behavior, then the logical inference is that Obama thinks the Bush tax cuts, taken as a whole, are good policy.

Prior to that statement, he had just explained what he thinks was wrong with extending the Bush tax cuts:

This was the best chance to kill the tax cuts once and for all. Yes, it would have been worse in the short run for the economy. But this is a huge price to pay for a modest stimulus made up entirely out of tax cuts (largely tax cuts for the rich). Instead, we are stuck with a huge reduction in the tax burden of the rich and a small reduction in the tax burden of the middle class–which, on balance, helps the rich and hurts the middle class–forever.

He goes on to point out:

Finally, are the “middle-class” tax cuts really worth fighting for? Or, to put it another way, why does Obama care about them so much? Contrary to the beliefs of the Tea Party, money doesn’t just get eaten by a big monster when it goes to the IRS. It gets spent on stuff that ordinary people want and need. So a priori, we can’t say that an additional dollar of tax revenue is good or bad for ordinary people.

I think Kwak’s ending puts Obama’s choices in the stark contrast needed to see what is going on:

So perhaps with the best intentions, the Obama administration, by making it more likely that the Bush tax cuts will become permanent (just like the AMT fix is permanent), is probably hastening the day when push will come to shove and Medicare will be gutted. The bigger the projected national debt, the more seemingly reasonable people in the middle of the ideological spectrum shake their heads sadly and say something has to be done about Medicare, as if it’s a fact of nature and not a fact of politics. As I’ve said before, no administration has tried harder to control health care costs and thereby protect the future of Medicare. But at the same time, they are digging deeper the hole on the funding side that, politically, is the big threat to Medicare–and to retirement security for hundreds of millions of ordinary Americans.

Apparently Obama is upset at people on the left for insisting on purity. In his view of the world, he drew a line in the sand: he was going to protect tax cuts for the “middle class,” and he succeeded. Maybe he did. Maybe we should be giving him credit for getting what he wanted. But if that’s the case, he’s drawing moderate-Republican lines in the sand. His priorities, as reflected in his policy decisions, are lower taxes (for everyone, not just the rich) and the smaller government that necessarily implies. And that’s why the left is angry.


Tax Cut Ironies

James Kwak writes about the Tax Cut Capitulation on Baseline Scenario web site,

(Note to Barack: If you want to win a negotiation, you have to be willing to walk away. Take my daughter. If I threaten her with a three-minute timeout, she says, “I want a timeout for eight hours!” If I threaten to take away an episode of Dinosaur Train, she says, “I don’t want to watch Dinosaur Train ever again!” You have two daughters, right?)

Good stimulus policies bring about economic improvements that are larger than the government money spent.  In economics this is called a multiplier that is greater than 1. Kwak quotes Mark Zandi about the multiplier on the package just “compromised”:

According to Mark Zandi (via Menzie Chinn), the multiplier for the Bush income tax cuts is 0.29 and the multiplier for accelerated depreciation is 0.27.

There is another thing wrong with the Obama capitulation other than the low multiplier:

Second, this can no longer be considered a two-year tax cut. This year, the Democrats gave in to the framing that letting the cuts expire would be a tax increase. President Obama has already nailed himself to the cross of “stop[ping] middle-class taxes from going up.” With that on his resume, how is he going to flip-flop and let those taxes go up in 2012? He won’t win a vote to cut taxes just for the middle class with fewer Democrats in Congress than he has now. So if he wants to preserve the middle-class tax cuts, he’ll have to compromise again.

Following along in the vein of Greenberg’s Law of Counterproductive Behavior he says:

So finally, you have to ask, what does Barack Obama want? Does he really like most of the Bush tax cuts? Does he really think the bulk of the tax cuts are good for the country, and that going along with the tax cuts in the top brackets is a reasonable price to pay to keep them?

In a footnote explaining why the Bush  (now Obama) Tax cuts were bad policy, he points out:

How bad? Here’s one example. In order to pass the bill using reconciliation–the first time reconciliation was ever used to pass a deficit-increasing bill–they had to limit the ten-year cost of the bill. One way they did that was by adding a provision that allows upper-income taxpayers, in 2010, to convert their traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs. This is unambiguously good for upper-income taxpayers, because it’s optional, so you can decide if you want to do it. So in the long term, it will result in lower tax revenues. But it artificially juices tax revenues in 2010, because when you convert you have to pay tax on the conversion amount now. That increased the amount by which they could cut taxes elsewhere in the bill. So, as my tax casebook puts it, the bill uses tax cuts for the rich to fund more tax cuts for the rich.


The Heartbreak of Premature Capitulation

The piece The Heartbreak of Premature Capitulation by Michael Winship has some clever puns in it.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you President Barack Obama, providing needless aid and comfort to those who would do him wrong, handing over his own head without a fight, afflicted with a curious syndrome we men of science have decided to call Premature Capitulation.

More interesting were his quotes from The Baseline Scenario web site:

… as James Kwak points out on The Baseline Scenario web site (which he founded with economist Simon Johnson), “The Bush tax cuts were always bad policy. After the last election, President Obama will be able to accomplish precious little. But he could easily have killed the Bush tax cuts and thereby done more good for our nation’s fiscal situation than anyone will be in a position to do for many years to come. Killing the tax cuts would alone reduce the national debt by roughly as much as the deficit commission’s entire proposal. And killing the tax cuts was the path of least resistance. Obama could have done it by doing nothing. Or he could have done it by taking a strong negotiating position and being willing to walk away from the table …

“Instead we got a two-year extension as part of an overall package that adds $900 billion to the debt … And Obama will no longer be able to say the tax cuts were a mistake made by President Bush that he was letting expire. Now he owns the mistake.”