Follow this link to the analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.

This report has interactive graphs that let you see the impact of various proposed policy changes.

Despite what you may have heard from the sound bites in the news media, the interpretation is not nearly as gloomy as you might think.

The important caveat that hardly ever gets mentioned in the media  is stated in the executive summary:

Those estimates are not intended to be a prediction of actual budget outcomes; rather, they indicate what CBO estimates would occur if current laws and policies remained in place. Toward that end, CBO’s projections presume no changes in current tax laws or spending programs.

The  stimulus plan is and always has been part of a strategy to run deficits when in recession and run surpluses when the economy recovers.  None of the administration plans to reduce the deficit are baked into the CBO plan.

The CBO projections also use an estimate of the economic growth rate into the future.  The growth rate experienced in the just ended 2009 fourth quarter was at least 50% larger than anybody’s wildest dreams.  (I know there were one time things that made it possible, but there can always be one time things, though what they are changes with time.)