Monthly Archives: November 2010


Freedom As Practiced At U.S. Airports

John describes and has video and audio recordings of TSA encounter at San Diego International Airport

Because of issues like this that were not even this bad, when we made our flight into retirement in 2006 from Portland, OR to Providence, RI, Sharon and I vowed that it would be our last airplane flight. So far we have been receiving more and more evidence that it was a wise choice.

We decided where our limit was. Is there any limit to the indignities you will suffer in order to fly on an airplane?


Economist Ha-Joon Chang on the G20 Summit, Currency Wars and Why the Free Market is a “Myth”

Watch the 20 minute video of the interview  Economist Ha-Joon Chang on the G20 Summit, Currency Wars and Why the Free Market is a “Myth” from the website democracynow.org.

Here is an example response to whet your appetitie:

HA-JOON CHANG: Well, you know, it is quite understandable why Americans are kind of frustrated by the slowness in the adjustment of Chinese currency. I mean, let’s get the facts right. I mean, it has been adjusted, only very, very slowly, so it’s not like China is absolutely refusing to move. But, yes, I mean, given the imbalances that U.S.A. is facing, it looks painfully slow. But on the Chinese side, you have to understand this. I mean, first of all, they don’t want the kind of abrupt adjustment that Japan had to make to its own currency in the 1980s in the so-called Plaza Accord, which then created this huge financial bubble, destroyed the Japanese economy. So the Chinese want to do it slowly.

And secondly, you know, it’s not just China who “manipulates” currency value, as you just said. I mean, the Fed flooding the American economy with this money is also currency manipulation. So the Chinese are rightly upset.

But on the other hand, yes, I mean, the problem is that, since the ’70s, we have lived under the kind of notion that only the deficit countries have to make adjustment. You know, surplus countries have to make adjustment, too, but in the last 30 years the reigning orthodoxy has been that, you know, anyone who’s spending beyond his means has to be punished. I mean, this is exactly the logic behind the punishment of third world countries in the debt crisis, and later Asian economies and the Argentinean economy. So, in that sense, it’s that, actually, that the very thing that the U.S. have been trying to impose on the world are coming to haunt itself, you know, because the U.S. has been on the forefront of this logic that it’s only the deficit countries that have to make adjustment, and now other countries are legitimately saying, “Well, why don’t you then do the same?”

Were you even aware of “…1980s in the so-called Plaza Accord, which then created this huge financial bubble, destroyed the Japanese economy.”


Do All Democracies Have A Short Memory?

In my previous post, China Would Be Crazy To Accede To U.S. Demands, I conjectured that perhaps China won’t do what we tell them to do because they remember what happened to the rest of Asia when those countries followed U.S. advice in 1997.

It seems like the American voters are swinging wildly from right wing to left wing and back again on a two year schedule.  With such short memories about what happened just a few years ago, there is no way this country could stick to a long term plan.

I can just imagine what the people in the Chinese government are thinking when we tell them that they should run their country more democratically and give their dissenters more freedom.  Beside thinking, “Are you nuts?” they must think that if our form of government is an example of what happens with democracy, there is no wonder they want no part of it.  They might even think that the U.S. is a fine one to be lecturing, when the U.S. are the ones that ought to be listening to a lecture.

I do not want to be an apologist for tyrannical forms of government nor for forms that do not recognize the rights of the governed.  I wish our country could be an example of a democracy where good decisions are made and where the voters could stick to the thinking behind a long term plan long enough to see if it is working.

It is one thing to make adjustments as we go along.  I think that is a wonderful idea.  It is quite another thing to go from one extreme to its polar opposite every two years.

Can any of my readers suggest some examples of current democracies that have not lost their way?  Do any of those examples have a radical free-market economy?  What is it about those countries that enables them to have a long term plan?


China Would Be Crazy To Accede To U.S. Demands

This post is kind of like a shaggy dog story in that there are a lot of words before I get to the punchline.  I assure you that there is a punchline. I don’t know how else I can  make the case.

Perhaps China has not forgotten the Asian debt crisis that was forming around 1997.

Naomi Klein in her book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, describes the roots of the crisis. [Page 336]

Back in the early nineties, whenever advocates of free trade wanted a persuasive success story to invoke in debates, they invariably pointed to the Asian Tigers. These were the miracle economies that were growing by leaps and bounds, supposedly because they had flung open their borders to unrestricted globalization.  It was a useful story – the Tigers were certainly developing with whirlwind speed – but to suggest that their expansion was based on free trade was a fiction. Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand still had highly protectionist policies that barred foreigners from owning land and from buying out national firms.  They had also maintained a significant role for the state, keeping sectors like energy and transportation in public hands. The Tigers had also blocked many foreign imports from Japan, Europe, and North America, as they built up their own domestic markets.  They were economic success stories unquestionably, but ones that proved mixed, managed economies grew faster and more equitably than those following the Wild West Washington Consensus.

The situation did not please Western and Japanese investment banks and multinational firms; watching Asia’s consumer market explode, they understandably longed for unfettered access to the region to sell their products.  They also wanted the right to buy up the best of the Tigers’ corporations – particularly Korea’s impressive conglomerates like Daewoo, Hyundai, Samsung, and LG. In the mid-nineties, under pressure from the IMF and the newly created World Trade Organization, Asian countries agreed to split the difference: they would maintain laws that protected national firms from foreign ownership and resist pressure to privatize their key state companies, but they would lift barriers to their financial sectors, allowing a surge of paper investing and currency trading.

In 1997, when the flood of hot money suddenly reversed current in Asia, it was a direct result of this kind of speculative investment, which was legalized only because of Western pressure.  Wall Street, or course, didn’t see it that way.  Top investment analysts instantly recognized the crisis as a chance to level the remaining barriers protecting Asia’s markets once and for all. Pelosky, the Morgan Stanley strategist, was particularly forthright about the logic: if the crisis was left to worsen, all foreign currency would be drained from the region and Asian-owned companies would have either to close down or to sell themselves to Western firms – both beneficial outcomes for Morgan Stanley….

I’ll leave out many of the details, but try to cut to the chase.

Fischer had been one of the most vocal advocates of shock therapy in Russia, and despite harrowing human costs there, his attitude was just as unyielding in Asia. Several governments suggested that since the crisis was caused by the ease with which money could gush in and out of their countries with nothing to slow down the flow, perhaps it made sense to put some barriers back up – the dreaded “capital controls.”  China had kept its controls up (ignoring Friedman’s advice in this regard), and it was the only country in the region that was not being ravaged by the crisis. And Malaysia had put controls back up, and they seemed to be working.

The reddening and bolding of the sentence above is not in the original text. Since I promised a punchline, I wanted to make sure you didn’t miss it.

Now that you have read a little bit of the history, can you understand why China doesn’t just jump on the advice from the West on how to run their economy?  If you were in their shoes, would you sacrifice the well being of your country to satisfy the whims of another who clearly doesn’t know beans about how to run a mixed economy?

And George Bush wondered why some countries and people hate us?


November 15, 2010

Potential corroboration is in the article China seeks to learn from mistakes of 1985 Plaza Accord. This article was published in 2006.


The Hijacked Commission

In his commentary, The Hijacked Commission, Paul Krugman analyzes what is wrong with the deficit reduction commission and their likely proposals.

It’s no mystery what has happened on the deficit commission: as so often happens in modern Washington, a process meant to deal with real problems has been hijacked on behalf of an ideological agenda. Under the guise of facing our fiscal problems, Mr. Bowles and Mr. Simpson are trying to smuggle in the same old, same old — tax cuts for the rich and erosion of the social safety net.

Can anything be salvaged from this wreck? I doubt it. The deficit commission should be told to fold its tents and go away.

The prescription that the deficit commission seems to be headed toward is remarkably like what the prescription that the IMF recommends to countries that want to borrow from the IMF. In just about every case, those that take the loan and follow the recommendations suffer great damage to their economies and people in those countries die from the results.

The Milton Friedman/Chicago School of Economics disease is about to hit this country full force if we listen to what is about to come out of this commission.


When a Safety Net Is Yanked Away [Long-Term Care Insurance] – (Lieber)

In the 13 November 2010 NY Times, Ron Lieber writes When a Safety Net Is Yanked Away.

Citing well-known challenges to the long-term care insurance industry (but without really saying what they were), MetLife said that it would stop underwriting new long-term care policies for individuals after Dec. 30. The company will also cease new enrollments to group and other plans, say, through an employer.

The company added that it would continue paying claims on existing policies as long as customers continued paying premiums. Many of them may not, however, since MetLife recently asked state insurance regulators for permission to raise premiums on many policies by as much as 44 percent.

It wasn’t the only company not charging enough for its policies. The two leading players in the industry are trying to raise prices, too. Genworth Financial is seeking an 18 percent increase on older policies held by about 25 percent of its customers. And John Hancock has filed for permission to raise premiums for about 80 percent of its customers by an average of 40 percent. It has also temporarily stopped offering new long-term care insurance plans through employers while it tries to figure out what to charge.

State regulators may not bless these requests. But it suggests how far off the companies were in pricing their products.

In Lieber’s 5 November 2010 NY Times article, Ignore Long-Term Care Planning at Your Peril, he quotes a MetLife spokeswoman, Karen Eldred,

“Assumptions used to initially price many long-term care insurance products have changed. Evolving assumptions and their impact on pricing is a challenge the industry is facing over all. The primary assumptions that have changed since the initial pricing of these products include: interest rates, persistency, morbidity and mortality experience, which have not materialized as expected.”

Lieber goes on to translate what Eldred said, and you can read that in his articles.

But, at its core, the insurers made “guesstimates” which turned out to be off the mark, and now they want the various state insurance commissioners to retroactively shift the risk back onto past policyholders, who bought their insurance policies in good faith.

Let’s hope the state governors and insurance commissioners don’t knuckle under. If you agree, write to your governor.

You might also be interested in Lieber’s 12 November 2010 blog post, The Trouble with Long-Term care Insurance. See, especially, the comments to his post.

By the way, Lieber makes reference to two academics, Amy Finklestein (MIT) and Jeffrey Brown (U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) who have written on the long-term care insurance market. If any of you wish to delve deeper, here is one place to start: The Private Market for Long-Term Care Insurance-Review of the Evidence (2008).

I consider all of this one more argument for national health insurance.

-RichardH


Despite advance warnings of financial crisis, Bush backed off proposed crackdowns on risky mortgages

I found the Associated Press article Despite advance warnings of financial crisis, Bush backed off proposed crackdowns on risky mortgages, in the New York Daily News.

Monday, December 1st 2008, 8:36 AM

WASHINGTON – The Bush administration backed off proposed crackdowns on no-money-down, interest-only mortgages years before the economy collapsed, buckling to pressure from some of the same banks that have now failed. It ignored remarkably prescient warnings that foretold the financial meltdown, according to an Associated Press review of regulatory documents.

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“Expect fallout, expect foreclosures, expect horror stories,” California mortgage lender Paris Welch wrote to U.S. regulators in January 2006, about one year before the housing implosion cost her a job.

How come no mention of Frank and Dodd?  Could it be that Bush alone could have prevented this crash?  I don’t know how many people are aware that the regulators mentioned in this article are part of the executive branch.  Even so, the Republicans were in control of Congress up until 2006.


Counterproductive Behavior in Early Months of Iraq Occupation

At the beginning of the Iraq occupation by the U.S., many Iraqis were thrown out of work.  In their stead, the U.S. spent billions of dollars on no-bid contracts with well connected U.S. firms.  These firms did not hire unemployed Iraqis. Instead, they flew in mercenaries from the U.S. to do work at $100,000 salaries, that the Iraqis would have been pleased to do for much less.  Gainfully employed Iraqis rebuilding their country are much less likely to join the insurrection than those who are unemployed while non-citizens are paid exorbitant amounts to do the same work they are willing and able to do.

I wondered how obtuse Paul Bremer would have to be to not see the damage his policies were causing. Now that I have formulated Greenberg’s Law of Counterproductive Behavior, it came as no surprise when I read the explanation  in the book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism.

In describing a conference held by the U.S. State Department in Baghdad in the early months of the occupation, author Naomi Klein focused on one of the main speakers [page 432].

One of the main speakers was Marek Belka, Poland’s former right-wing finance minister who worked under Bremer in Iraq for several months. According to an official State Department report on the gathering, Belka pounded the Iraqis with the message that they had to seize the moment of chaos to be “forceful” in pushing through policies that “would throw many people out of work.” The first lesson from Poland, Belka said, was that “unproductive state-owned enterprises should be sold off immediately without efforts to salvage then with public funds,”  (He failed to mention that popular pressure had forced Solidarity to abandon plans for rapid privatization, saving Poland from a Russian-style meltdown.)  His second lesson was even bolder.  It was five months after the fall of Baghdad, and Iraq was in the midst of a humanitarian emergency.  Unemployment was at 67 percent, malnutrition was rampant and the only thing holding off mass starvation was the fact that Iraqi households still received government-subsidized food and other essentials, just as they had under the UN-administered oil-for-food program during the sanctions period. Belka told the Iraqis that these market-distorting giveaways had to be scrapped immediately. “Develop the private sector, starting with the elimination of subsidies.” He stressed that these measures were “much more important and divisive than privatization.”3

3. Jane Mayer, “Contract Sport,” The New Yorker, February 16, 2004

According to Greenberg’s Law, what I thought was counterproductive behavior, was really not.  I just had misunderstood what the players in this sport were trying to accomplish.

One of the failings of true believers in absolute free-markets is their failure to account for the passage of time.  Even if you could argue that the people would be better off in the long run, they fail to account for the fact that people could starve to death while waiting.  Unlike docile Americans, starving Iraqis didn’t just sit idle and slowly starve to death.  They started fighting back.

The presentation by Belka explains why the Coalition Provisional Authority could believe that it was a good thing to throw so many people out of work and not subsidize them while unemployed.  That does not explain why they hired U.S. Contractors and allowed them to hire foreigners instead of Iraqis.  We’ll have to look for other ulterior motives.  Perhaps it was plain old greed that motivated them.  Greed is supposed to be good according to absolutist free market enthusiasts.

To think that George W. Bush wondered why they hated us.


Why We Should Beware Budget-Deficit Mania

The commentary, Why We Should Beware Budget-Deficit Mania, by Robert Reich is posted on Truth-out.org.

If Congress and the President started right now to cut the federal deficit – slashing spending and raising taxes on the middle class – our anemic economy would quickly become comatose.

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Even worse, budget-deficit mania will slow future growth if it forces government to cut the things that fuel growth – education, basic R&D, child health, improved infrastructure.

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Don’t get me wrong. America’s projected budget deficits require attention. But in addressing them we need to focus on the right solutions, and make sure we’re solving the right problem.

The preliminary report of the President’s deficit commission doesn’t help. It’s another example of budget-deficit mania generating more heat than light.