Yearly Archives: 2010


Greenberg’s Law of Counterproductive Behavior 3

Here is the statement of the new Greenberg’s Law of Counterproductive Behavior:

If you see a behavior that seems to you to be counterproductive, perhaps you have misunderstood what the actor was trying to produce.

Corollary 1:

If you try to use logic to argue against the seemingly obvious motive for the behavior, you will fail. You need to find an argument against the actor’s actual motive.

The  use of torture to gain information has been the subject of several recent posts.  Experts agree that torture does not garner reliable information.  Despite George W. Bush’s repeated claims, the people conducting the interrogations that did garner the useful information Bush talks about, claim that they did not use torture to get the information.  They claimed the information flow stopped when torture began.

The torture regresses the subjects to an infantile state and has a tendency to erase memories from their minds.  If you want to get information from somebody, you’d think that mind erasure would be the last thing you would want.

Here is where Greenberg’s Law of Counterproductive Behavior comes in. We who argue against torture have fallen into the trap of believing the motive for torture is to gain information.

As described in the book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, the purpose of the torture is more to induce terror in the compatriots of the victims than it has to do with gaining information.

Another use of these torture techniques, according to the book,  was specifically for erasing the memories of the victims.  Sometimes the hope is to rebuild the victim into a person whose ideas meet the approval of the torturer.  You can see this motive at work in claims by George Bush. The former president writes, “His understanding of Islam was that he had to resist interrogation only up to a certain point. Waterboarding was the technique that allowed him to reach that threshold, fulfill his religious duty, and then cooperate.” Bush goes on to claim succcess for waterboarding in that Zubaydah, his torture victim, gave him (Bush) a direct instruction, “You must do this (torture) for all the brothers.”

In South America during the period when many countries were being ruled by military juntas, torture was used to try to change the minds of citizens who objected to the extreme free market economics that the dictators were imposing on their countries.  The people who objected to these economic policies were considered to be a cancer on the society,  They had to be either cured or removed.

Up until the time of the military takeovers, the University of Chicago economics department under Milton Friedman had been training South American economists to foster pure free market economics in South America. When years of these attempts had failed, they had to resort to military takeover and then brute force and torture. This is how the students of Milton Friedman finally gained the power over economic policy that they had been seeking.

When you hear today’s Republicans touting the virtues of unfettered free market capitalism, you should bear in mind what could happen if you don’t go along with the idea.


Extremism In The Defense Of Liberty Is No Vice!

In his acceptance speech as the 1964 Republican Presidential candidate, Barry Goldwater said:

I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!

The public brouhaha over this statement contributed to Goldwater’s resounding defeat.  What did the voters of 1964 understand that we are losing sight of today?  I think it is the fact that extremism is the problem.  It helps the country to have competition of ideas between a conservative and a liberal philosophy until you add the adjective “extreme”.

This epiphany came to me while thinking about what I was reading in the book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism. The book documents the results of applying an extreme free market philosophy to a people who don’t want such a system.  I recognized that the excesses that the dictators in these countries went to had a mirror image in the excesses of the USSR, China, Cuba, and other countries on the left.  The common factor between these two was extremism.

Both sides had a utopian view of how great the world would be if a pure version of their particular model of the society/economy were implemented.  These utopian systems always have a consistent inner logic to the description of how they work.  Unfortunately, the inner logic usually leaves out an understanding of the way humans actually behave.  Because people did not actually behave the way these utopian dreamers believed that they should, the systems had to be implemented via force and extreme brutality.

In 2010, I believe that this country faces more problems from extremism on the right than it does from extremism on the left. Of course, neither extremism is good.

The extremist leaders of the Republican Party have succeeded in scaring people about the problems of extremism on the left.  Though they accuse President Obama of being a left wing extremist, he is nothing of the sort.  In their fear of extremism on the left, the American voter seems to be fleeing into the arms of the extremists on the right. This rush can be likened to the Stockholm Syndrome as described in the article, Were American Voters Victims of the Stockholm Syndrome in 2010?

I was thinking of the health care reform issue in light of this argument about extremists.  The right fears a takeover by the government of all health care.  I was thinking that if the private insurance companies cannot compete with the public option, then the private sector might just wither away as the Republicans fear.  Then I thought of the problem of a completely government run system being subject to the funding whims of the body politic.

That is when I realized the beauty of a mixed system.  The private health care and insurance competing against various options involving more or less government intervention. It is the competition, if it is fair, that keeps things in balance.  If the government does something that is better than the private system, then the private system will have to adapt if it wants to keep its customers.  On the other end, if the government starves its health care options of the funding that it needs, then customers will drift back to the private options.  The mere existence of the competition tends to keep the systems racing to the top rather than to the bottom.

This balanced system is exactly what Barack Obama had in mind.  The Repubicans who tend to think only in terms of extreme free market or extreme government control, used rhetoric to convince many people that the President wanted a complete takeover of the system by the government.

In program after program, regulation, bank bailouts, auto bailouts, economic stimulus, the Republicans only see extreme options.  The President sees balanced options.  The American voter has been scared into looking at it from the Republican extremist position.  The Democrats share some of the blame by not making sure the public understood that they were not proposing extreme solutions.

The extremists on both sides decry the fact that the two political parties are not extremely different enough.  Actually, when the parties are not too extreme this is the sweet spot of governance for this country.  This is this country’s genius.


Bank of America Edges Closer to Tipping Point

Jonathan Weil wrote the commentary, Bank of America Edges Closer to Tipping Point, which I found on the Bloomberg web site.

Judging by its shrinking stock price, though, investors are acting as if Bank of America is near a tipping point. Its market capitalization stands at $115.6 billion, or 54 percent of book value.

The problem for anyone trying to analyze Bank of America’s $2.3 trillion balance sheet is that it’s largely impenetrable. Some portions, though, are so delusional that they invite laughter. Consider, for instance, the way the company continues to account for its acquisition of Countrywide Financial, the disastrous subprime lender at the center of the housing bust, which it bought for $4.2 billion in July 2008.

Here’s how Bank of America allocated the purchase price for that deal. First, it determined that the fair value of the liabilities at Countrywide exceeded the mortgage lender’s assets by $200 million. Then it recorded $4.4 billion of goodwill, a ledger entry representing the difference between Countrywide’s net asset value and the purchase price.

That’s right. Countrywide’s goodwill supposedly was worth more than Countrywide itself. In other words, Bank of America paid $4.2 billion for the company, even though it thought the value there was less than zero.

Since completing that acquisition, Bank of America has dropped the Countrywide brand. The company’s home-loan division has reported $13.5 billion of pretax losses. Yet Bank of America still hasn’t written off any of its Countrywide goodwill.

Consider this post along with my previous post, Financial Improprieties Abound as Stocks Rally. I hope there won’t be any buyer’s remorse when the Republicans in the House get to deal with the second leg of the impending banking disaster.  Nah, the voters will just blame Barney Frank.

You might also want to consider The Best Way To Rob A Bank Is To Own A Politician,


On The Spate of Military Suicides

After my experience in the US Army back in 1967-1969, I came away with the conviction that every citizen should experience being in the military.  I figured that about two weeks of that experience would give you all you needed to know.  More than that was unnecessary.

In basic training we were explicitly told that the purpose was to break us down so that we could be rebuilt as soldiers.  It makes sense if you think about the need to get rid of the ordinary human resistance to killing another human being.  Of course demonizing the enemy was only part of the process.

I resisted such indoctrination, but I realized that in resisting it, I would fail to become an effective fighting man.  Thank goodness I was permanently assigned to Frankford Arsenal in Philadelphia, PA. Had I been sent to Viet Nam, I probably would have gotten myself killed in the first 15 minutes of an engagement with the enemy.

However, people returning from war who had been turned into effective soldiers have a real problem.  How do they get back their civilian minds that were broken down by the military training? It wouldn’t surprise me that this struggle is not always waged successfully. After all there are no 8 weeks of training at the end of a military career to undo what was done in basic training at the beginning of that career.

I don’t want to detract from my previous post, Reconsidering George Bush’s Memoir, by leaving the impression that my Army experience is the only one I had to justify the  following comment that I made in that post:

If you read the book “The Shock Doctrine” you will learn how the idea of destroying a person’s mind came to be an acceptable goal in psychiatric circles. I know some of this information first hand without having to have read it in the book.

What I have written is not a criticism of the basic training in the army. I stated why I knew it was necessary. Also note that I am not making a special criticism of the U. S. Army.  That is the only military experience that I have.  I don’t imagine it is any different in any other military organization because of the military necessity of training an effective fighting force. However, it is important that the military and the citizens who delegate the job to them understand the full consequences of sending people off to war.


Reconsidering George Bush’s Memoir

In my previous post, Bush on waterboarding: ‘Damn right’, I quoted from a news article quoting from George Bush’s memoir.

The former president writes, “His understanding of Islam was that he had to resist interrogation only up to a certain point. Waterboarding was the technique that allowed him to reach that threshold, fulfill his religious duty, and then cooperate.” Bush elaborates that Zubaydah gave him a direct instruction, “‘You must do this for all the brothers.’”

I asked why Bush wasn’t suspicious that this instruction from Zubaydah had been coerced from him.

I may have to give credit to the Cheney forces for some humanity after all.  Perhaps they didn’t coerce Zubaydah into making that statement.  Perhaps they were kind enough to just lie to the President about it.

I can picture it now, Cheney turns to an aide and says, “Bush is about to go soft on torture.  What can we do to ease his conscience so that he doesn’t take to drink again?”

The aide and Cheney hatch this plot to concoct this unbelievable directive from Zubaydah.  They knew that Bush was so troubled by what was going on that he would grasp at any straw to assuage his guilt.

Remember that Zubaydah’s attorneys said that after Zubaydah’s 83 waterboardings,  Zubaydah’s mind had been so destroyed that he was unable to contribute to his own defense.  Yet we are to believe he wrote a lucid directive to President Bush? Maybe it wasn’t humanity on Cheney’s part, maybe they couldn’t get anything more from Zubaydah.

If you read the book “The Shock Doctrine” you will learn how the idea of destroying a person’s mind came to be an acceptable goal in psychiatric circles. I know some of this information first hand without having to have read it in the book.

Anyway, Cheney and his aide were probably horrified to see this line published in his memoir.  They knew that people with a clear conscience wouldn’t fall for such nonsense.

This only apparently applies to people with clear conscience.  Even Bush’s main speech writer repeated this nonsensical claim in a debate moderated by Christine Amanpour.


Obama: The Full “60 Minutes” Interview

Even if you saw this interview on the TV, it is worth watching the complete 70 minute interview on the web. Seeing the whole thing in the order in which it actually evolved, it starts to make more sense than the way it was edited for TV.


In case you saw this on the television and didn’t catch the URL to the CBS web site, go to Obama: The Full “60 Minutes” Interview. Not only will you find this video, but you will also find transcripts of the interview. I know some people enjoy reading it more than they do watching it.

From many of the things that the President said, I could swear he must be reading this blog. I couldn’t have been more pleased to hear all the things that he said.


When Torture Starts, Information Flow Stops

I found this excerpt from the Congressional Record on an anti-war site under the title, Senator Whitehouse on Torture: It’s Worse Than Everybody Thinks.

[Congressional Record: June 9, 2009 (Senate)] [Page S6359-S6361]

As recently as May 10, our former Vice President went on a television
show to relate that the interrogation process we had in place produced
from certain key individuals, such as Abu Zubaida–he named him
specifically–actionable information. Well, we had a hearing inquiring
into that, and we produced the testimony of the FBI agent who actually
conducted those interrogations.
Here is what happened. Abu Zubaida was injured in a firefight and
captured in Afghanistan. He was flown to an undisclosed location for
interrogation. The first round of interrogation conducted
professionally by Soufan and his assistant from the CIA produced such
significant intelligence information that a jet with doctors on it was
scrambled from Langley–from this area–and flown to the undisclosed
location so that the best medical care could be provided to Abu Zubaida
so he could continue to talk. That was the first round of information.

In the second interrogation, conducted consistent with professional
interrogation techniques, Abu Zubaida disclosed that the mastermind of
the 9/11 attacks was Khalid Shaik Mohammed. That may be the apex piece of
intelligence information we have obtained during the course of the
conflict.

At that point, the private contractors arrived, and for some reason
Abu Zubaida was handed over to them so they could apply their enhanced
interrogation techniques. Ali Soufan testified that at that point they
got no further information. What triggered the first round of
information was that Soufan knew about Zubaida’s pet name that his
mother used for him. When he used that nickname, Zubaida fell apart. He
didn’t know how to defend himself, and he began to disclose this very
important information.

Knowledge, outwitting people, playing on mental weaknesses, taking
advantage of our skills as Americans–that is what worked and got the
information about Mohammed. He was

[[Page S6361]]

turned over to the private contractors for enhanced techniques and they
got nothing.

It was then determined that because the interrogation had become
unproductive, he should be returned to the FBI agent and CIA agent who
had twice interrogated him. It was in the third round that he disclosed
information about Jose Padilla, the so-called dirty bomber, which was
so important that Attorney General Ashcroft held a press conference, I
believe in Moscow, to celebrate the discovery of this information.
Again, for some reason, he was turned back again to the private
contractors for the application of more abusive techniques, and again
the flow of information stopped.

For a third time, he was returned to the FBI and CIA agents again for
professional interrogation, but by now he had been so compromised by
the techniques, even they were unsuccessful in getting further
information.

As best as I have been able to determine, for the remaining sessions
of 83 waterboardings that have been disclosed as being associated with
this interrogation, no further actionable information was obtained. Yet
the story has been exactly the opposite. The story over and over has
been that once you got these guys out of the hands of the FBI and the
military amateurs and into the hands of the trained CIA professionals,
who can use the tougher techniques, that is when you get the
information. In this case, at least, the exact opposite was the truth,
and this was a case cited by the Vice President by name.

You might want to compare this information with Torture debate: conducted by Christine Amanpour on CNN.


Bush on waterboarding: ‘Damn right’

The article Bush on waterboarding: ‘Damn right’ is on the CNN web site. In this article there are excerpts from Bush’s memoir.

Though Bush confirms that he knew the use of waterboarding would one day become public, and acknowledges that it is “sensitive and controversial,” he asserts that “the choice between security and values was real,” and expresses firm confidence in his decision. “Had I not authorized waterboarding on senior al Qaeda leaders, I would have had to accept a greater risk that the country would be attacked. In the wake of 9/11, that was a risk I was unwilling to take,” he writes.

Bush further declares that the new techniques proved effective, yielding information on al Qaeda’s structure and operations, and leading to the capture of Ramzi bin al Shibh, the logistical planner of the 9/11 attacks who was captured on the first anniversary of 9/11.

And if there were any lingering doubts or conflict about the use of waterboarding, Bush discloses that he received reassurance from an unlikely source: terror suspect Abu Zubaydah.

The former president writes, “His understanding of Islam was that he had to resist interrogation only up to a certain point. Waterboarding was the technique that allowed him to reach that threshold, fulfill his religious duty, and then cooperate.” Bush elaborates that Zubaydah gave him a direct instruction, “‘You must do this for all the brothers.'”

Intelligence gleaned from interrogations of Abu Zubaydah and other suspects led to the capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Bush writes. During a raid on Mohammed’s compound, agents discovered more plans for terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

Prompted by the discoveries, Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet asked if he had permission to use enhanced interrogation techniques including waterboarding on Mohammed.

Who does George Bush thinking he is fooling except for his tortured conscience?  What kind of person would write in his memoir that the person that was tortured told him that he should torture “all the brothers”? If he weren’t suspicious that the guy was tortured into writing that, he might at least think his readers would be suspicious.

On December 5, 2008, I posted an item How to Break a Terrorist.

A book titled How to Break a Terrorist is about to be published.  Its author is a former special intelligence operations officer who, along with his team of interrogators, “successfully hunted down one of the most notorious mass murderers of our generation, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq and the mastermind of the campaign of suicide bombings that had helped plunge Iraq into civil war.”

Contrary to George Bush’s assertions, this interrogator and his team did not use torture to gain the information that led to this result.

In the post from which I just quoted there were also a couple of links. One leads to the article Former U.S. Interrogator: Torture Policy Has Led to More Deaths than 9/11 Attacks.

In the article, he says torture techniques used in Iraq consistently failed to produce actionable intelligence and that methods outlined in the U.S. Army Field Manual, which rest on confidence building, consistently worked and gave the interrogators access to critical information.

There was also a link to an OpEd piece in the Washington Post, I’m Still Tortured by What I Saw in Iraq.

I personally conducted more than 300 interrogations, and I supervised more than 1,000. The methods my team used are not classified (they’re listed in the unclassified Field Manual), but the way we used them was, I like to think, unique. We got to know our enemies, we learned to negotiate with them, and we adapted criminal investigative techniques to our work (something that the Field Manual permits, under the concept of “ruses and trickery”). It worked. Our efforts started a chain of successes that ultimately led to Zarqawi.

Over the course of this renaissance in interrogation tactics, our attitudes changed. We no longer saw our prisoners as the stereotypical al-Qaeda evildoers we had been repeatedly briefed to expect; we saw them as Sunni Iraqis, often family men protecting themselves from Shiite militias and trying to ensure that their fellow Sunnis would still have some access to wealth and power in the new Iraq. Most surprisingly, they turned out to despise al-Qaeda in Iraq as much as they despised us, but Zarqawi and his thugs were willing to provide them with arms and money. I pointed this out to Gen. George Casey, the former top U.S. commander in Iraq, when he visited my prison in the summer of 2006. He did not respond.

Perhaps he should have. It turns out that my team was right to think that many disgruntled Sunnis could be peeled away from Zarqawi. A year later, Gen. David Petraeus helped boost the so-called Anbar Awakening, in which tens of thousands of Sunnis turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq and signed up with U.S. forces, cutting violence in the country dramatically.

Our new interrogation methods led to one of the war’s biggest breakthroughs: We convinced one of Zarqawi’s associates to give up the al-Qaeda in Iraq leader’s location. On June 8, 2006, U.S. warplanes dropped two 500-pound bombs on a house where Zarqawi was meeting with other insurgent leaders.

But Zarqawi’s death wasn’t enough to convince the joint Special Operations task force for which I worked to change its attitude toward interrogations. The old methods continued. I came home from Iraq feeling as if my mission was far from accomplished. Soon after my return, the public learned that another part of our government, the CIA, had repeatedly used waterboarding to try to get information out of detainees.

I know the counter-argument well — that we need the rough stuff for the truly hard cases, such as battle-hardened core leaders of al-Qaeda, not just run-of-the-mill Iraqi insurgents. But that’s not always true: We turned several hard cases, including some foreign fighters, by using our new techniques. A few of them never abandoned the jihadist cause but still gave up critical information. One actually told me, “I thought you would torture me, and when you didn’t, I decided that everything I was told about Americans was wrong. That’s why I decided to cooperate.”

Torture and abuse are against my moral fabric. The cliche still bears repeating: Such outrages are inconsistent with American principles. And then there’s the pragmatic side: Torture and abuse cost American lives.

I didn’t want to lengthen this post too much.  I have written an additional post, When Torture Starts Information Flow Stops. You might want to compare what is in that article with a Torture Debate that Christine Amanpour conducted on CNN. In the debate, you get an idea where Bush’s words come from.


Another Polarized ‘Wave’ Election

The Philadelphia Inquirer (I thought they had gone out of business) had the interesting article Another polarized ‘wave’ election Moderates fed up with both parties have led to rapid swings in control of Congress – much like the start of the 1900s. by Thomas Fitzgerald Inquirer Staff Writer.

In 1994, voters gave control of the House to the GOP for the first time in 40 years. But in 2006, Democrats got it back as the midterm elections became a referendum on the unpopular Iraq war and the presidency of George W. Bush. The party’s gains continued in 2008, when it picked up 21 seats as President Obama was elected.

Experts who study voting trends trace the phenomenon to accelerating polarization of the two parties, with Republicans growing more conservative and Democrats more liberal, leaving a large bloc of unattached moderates up for grabs. At least since 2000, this has led to close presidential elections and more frequent switches in control of Congress.

He concludes with  the following:

Some analysts wonder whether the political instability will continue, and ask how a polarized country can work out solutions to its long-deferred difficult problems, such as the national debt and the underfunding of the Social Security and Medicare programs.

In the days when the rest of the world was stumbling around as badly as we were, there was time to get our act together.  Now that there are rapidly rising countries that seem to be able stick to one direction for a while, we run the risk of losing our place in the race to the top.  We might even be vying for the race to the bottom.

Sort of reminds me of my brief stint at Sylvania semiconductor division.  It had a new CEO just about every year.  Do you hear about the great microprocessors now dominating the market from Sylvania?  Does Sylvania even do semiconductors anymore?  Even at the time, I thought that if they had to change CEO every year, maybe the problem was not with the CEO.


How The Democrats Won In Oregon

DPO logo


Steve,

This morning Governor Tim Kaine, Chair of the Democratic National Committee, called me to congratulate us on bucking national trends by electing John Kitzhaber as Governor and re-electing our entire Democratic Congressional Delegation. He told me we are "a bright spot in a tough election."

Under the leadership of Trent Lutz, Executive Director of the Democratic Party of Oregon and campaign director of Oregon's Democratic Coordinated Campaign, we had an unparalleled field and volunteer plan that made all the difference in this campaign. We knew that races this close are decided by field campaigns and that if we worked hard every day to discuss the differences on the issues between John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley, we'd bring our supporters home and win.

Here's the story: 

In mid-August, the Democratic Party of Oregon was called upon to mount an aggressive statewide field campaign that would persuade independents, solidify support among Democrats and get out the vote among low-likelihood voters.

With the generous support of Senator Ron Wyden, our Congressmen, and individual donors, the DPO was able to establish field offices and dispatch staff across the state to connect with volunteers like you and get the job done.

Chart - contacts over time


With your help and the help of dozens of partner organizations, we made a total of over 446,000 contacts by phone and over 303,000 door knocks. The result?

Chart - Pollster.com


That’s the power of field operations and grassroots organizing. For months we worked to get the word out about John Kitzhaber and our Democratic candidates on the phones and at the doors, and Tuesday's victory was the fruit of those labors.

Thank you for everything that you did over the course of the campaign.

Yours in democracy,

Meredith


Meredith Wood Smith
Chair, Democratic Party of Oregon

Paid for by the Democratic Party of Oregon • www.dpo.org • Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee