Yearly Archives: 2010


TSA Could Have Chosen A Less Intrusive Screening Machine

The McClatchy news article, TSA Could Have Chosen A Less Intrusive Screening Machine, discusses an alternative to the controversial machine being used in the U.S.

Unlike the backscatter imaging devices that provide revealing body images and which have stoked concerns about radiation, the system at Schiphol uses radio waves to detect contraband.

The Woburn, Mass., firm that manufacturers the system, L-3 Communications Security & Detection Systems, claims on its website that the radio waves are “10,000 times lower than other commonly-used radio frequency devices.”

If the software identifies a passenger carrying explosives, an outline of the problem body area is displayed on a generic mannequin figure instead of on the actual image of the passenger’s body. The mannequin image, which appears on the operator’s control panel, “can then be used by security personnel to direct a focused discussion or search,” the company website reads.

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On Wednesday, in testimony before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, John Pistole, the administrator of the Transportation Security Administration, acknowledged that the new target recognition imaging was “the next generation.”

“The only concern I have about that is there are currently a high rate of false positives on that technology, so we’re working through that,” Pistole testified. “But we are currently testing that today. We have been for several months.”

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On Wednesday, Pistole admitted the pat-downs have been more aggressive. But children under age 12 are exempted from the searches, he said.

I included the last sentence to show how ridiculous this security stuff really is.  Now that the TSA has told the terrorists where the hole in the security barrier is, how long will it take them to go through it?  Older gang members in this country already use minors to carry their guns for them, because minors don’t face the stiff penalties that adults do.

As for the worry about false positives of the new machine, I guess that implies that there aren’t very many false positives with the machines now in use.

According to the TSA, airport security has detected more than 130 prohibited, illegal or dangerous items this year thanks to the new scanning equipment. And more than 99 percent of airline passengers choose the imaging technology over alternative screening methods.

It would be interesting to hear how many pat down searches have been done in this time frame where the 130 items were found.  Any number above 130 would be from false positives.

I have decided that the numbers in this article put the story in the Greenberg’s Law Of The Media category.


I can think of several more devious methods that terrorists could use than they have used so far.  In the off chance that they have not already thought of them, I am not going to name them here.  That just means I won’t be able to say “I told you so” when they do start using them.  However, I feel safe in disclosing that I have thought of them.  They are so obvious that there is really no need to kidnap me and waterboard me to find out what they are.  If the terrorists lack imagination, I am sure they can find these ideas on Google.


Report Sounds Alarm On China’s Rerouting Of U.S. Internet Traffic

The article, Report Sounds Alarm On China’s Rerouting Of U.S. Internet Traffic, discusses  a report submitted to Congress on Wednesday by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

The report points to two specific incidents earlier this year where actions taken inside China had a direct impact on Internet traffic in the U.S. and other regions of the world.

In one of the incidents, traffic to and from about 15% of all Internet destinations was routed through servers belonging to China Telecom, a state-owned telecommunications company.

In an e-mailed statement Wednesday, China Telecom rejected the claims, but offered no further comment.

The rerouting happened on April 8 and lasted for about 18 minutes. The traffic hijacking affected U.S. government and military networks, including those belonging to the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Department of Commerce, NASA and the U.S. Senate.

Commercial sites including those belonging to Microsoft, Dell and Yahoo were also affected.
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“The takeaway here is that the foundation on which the Internet is built is insecure,” Alperovitch said. “It is based on trust. We trust ISPs to tell us which networks they own. There is no validation [of the information.]”

“Not only can this problem happen again, but it probably will,” he said.

Maybe there are just not enough crooked engineers in the profession so that, when these things are designed, the possibility of dishonesty is taken into account.  If this post weren’t inherently political enough, I’ll connect it to the Friedmanian/Feldsteinian radical free-market economists who don’t factor  dishonesty into their idealistic description about how world economies ought to work.  With the way they fudge the data to prove their points, they should have been aware of the possibility of dishonesty.


Martha S. Samuelson on Mentoring and Leadership

In the 7 November 2010 issue of the NY Times is an interview with Martha Samuelson, Ask Your Mentor for Help, Not for Brownie Points. Samuelson is the president and CEO of Analysis Group, an economics consulting firm.

I think this short interview should be read by all managers (and subordinates) interested in leadership and mentoring.

Thanks to JCC Jr for directing me to this article.

-RichardH


Freedom As Practiced At U.S. Airports

John describes and has video and audio recordings of TSA encounter at San Diego International Airport

Because of issues like this that were not even this bad, when we made our flight into retirement in 2006 from Portland, OR to Providence, RI, Sharon and I vowed that it would be our last airplane flight. So far we have been receiving more and more evidence that it was a wise choice.

We decided where our limit was. Is there any limit to the indignities you will suffer in order to fly on an airplane?


Economist Ha-Joon Chang on the G20 Summit, Currency Wars and Why the Free Market is a “Myth”

Watch the 20 minute video of the interview  Economist Ha-Joon Chang on the G20 Summit, Currency Wars and Why the Free Market is a “Myth” from the website democracynow.org.

Here is an example response to whet your appetitie:

HA-JOON CHANG: Well, you know, it is quite understandable why Americans are kind of frustrated by the slowness in the adjustment of Chinese currency. I mean, let’s get the facts right. I mean, it has been adjusted, only very, very slowly, so it’s not like China is absolutely refusing to move. But, yes, I mean, given the imbalances that U.S.A. is facing, it looks painfully slow. But on the Chinese side, you have to understand this. I mean, first of all, they don’t want the kind of abrupt adjustment that Japan had to make to its own currency in the 1980s in the so-called Plaza Accord, which then created this huge financial bubble, destroyed the Japanese economy. So the Chinese want to do it slowly.

And secondly, you know, it’s not just China who “manipulates” currency value, as you just said. I mean, the Fed flooding the American economy with this money is also currency manipulation. So the Chinese are rightly upset.

But on the other hand, yes, I mean, the problem is that, since the ’70s, we have lived under the kind of notion that only the deficit countries have to make adjustment. You know, surplus countries have to make adjustment, too, but in the last 30 years the reigning orthodoxy has been that, you know, anyone who’s spending beyond his means has to be punished. I mean, this is exactly the logic behind the punishment of third world countries in the debt crisis, and later Asian economies and the Argentinean economy. So, in that sense, it’s that, actually, that the very thing that the U.S. have been trying to impose on the world are coming to haunt itself, you know, because the U.S. has been on the forefront of this logic that it’s only the deficit countries that have to make adjustment, and now other countries are legitimately saying, “Well, why don’t you then do the same?”

Were you even aware of “…1980s in the so-called Plaza Accord, which then created this huge financial bubble, destroyed the Japanese economy.”


Do All Democracies Have A Short Memory?

In my previous post, China Would Be Crazy To Accede To U.S. Demands, I conjectured that perhaps China won’t do what we tell them to do because they remember what happened to the rest of Asia when those countries followed U.S. advice in 1997.

It seems like the American voters are swinging wildly from right wing to left wing and back again on a two year schedule.  With such short memories about what happened just a few years ago, there is no way this country could stick to a long term plan.

I can just imagine what the people in the Chinese government are thinking when we tell them that they should run their country more democratically and give their dissenters more freedom.  Beside thinking, “Are you nuts?” they must think that if our form of government is an example of what happens with democracy, there is no wonder they want no part of it.  They might even think that the U.S. is a fine one to be lecturing, when the U.S. are the ones that ought to be listening to a lecture.

I do not want to be an apologist for tyrannical forms of government nor for forms that do not recognize the rights of the governed.  I wish our country could be an example of a democracy where good decisions are made and where the voters could stick to the thinking behind a long term plan long enough to see if it is working.

It is one thing to make adjustments as we go along.  I think that is a wonderful idea.  It is quite another thing to go from one extreme to its polar opposite every two years.

Can any of my readers suggest some examples of current democracies that have not lost their way?  Do any of those examples have a radical free-market economy?  What is it about those countries that enables them to have a long term plan?


China Would Be Crazy To Accede To U.S. Demands

This post is kind of like a shaggy dog story in that there are a lot of words before I get to the punchline.  I assure you that there is a punchline. I don’t know how else I can  make the case.

Perhaps China has not forgotten the Asian debt crisis that was forming around 1997.

Naomi Klein in her book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, describes the roots of the crisis. [Page 336]

Back in the early nineties, whenever advocates of free trade wanted a persuasive success story to invoke in debates, they invariably pointed to the Asian Tigers. These were the miracle economies that were growing by leaps and bounds, supposedly because they had flung open their borders to unrestricted globalization.  It was a useful story – the Tigers were certainly developing with whirlwind speed – but to suggest that their expansion was based on free trade was a fiction. Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand still had highly protectionist policies that barred foreigners from owning land and from buying out national firms.  They had also maintained a significant role for the state, keeping sectors like energy and transportation in public hands. The Tigers had also blocked many foreign imports from Japan, Europe, and North America, as they built up their own domestic markets.  They were economic success stories unquestionably, but ones that proved mixed, managed economies grew faster and more equitably than those following the Wild West Washington Consensus.

The situation did not please Western and Japanese investment banks and multinational firms; watching Asia’s consumer market explode, they understandably longed for unfettered access to the region to sell their products.  They also wanted the right to buy up the best of the Tigers’ corporations – particularly Korea’s impressive conglomerates like Daewoo, Hyundai, Samsung, and LG. In the mid-nineties, under pressure from the IMF and the newly created World Trade Organization, Asian countries agreed to split the difference: they would maintain laws that protected national firms from foreign ownership and resist pressure to privatize their key state companies, but they would lift barriers to their financial sectors, allowing a surge of paper investing and currency trading.

In 1997, when the flood of hot money suddenly reversed current in Asia, it was a direct result of this kind of speculative investment, which was legalized only because of Western pressure.  Wall Street, or course, didn’t see it that way.  Top investment analysts instantly recognized the crisis as a chance to level the remaining barriers protecting Asia’s markets once and for all. Pelosky, the Morgan Stanley strategist, was particularly forthright about the logic: if the crisis was left to worsen, all foreign currency would be drained from the region and Asian-owned companies would have either to close down or to sell themselves to Western firms – both beneficial outcomes for Morgan Stanley….

I’ll leave out many of the details, but try to cut to the chase.

Fischer had been one of the most vocal advocates of shock therapy in Russia, and despite harrowing human costs there, his attitude was just as unyielding in Asia. Several governments suggested that since the crisis was caused by the ease with which money could gush in and out of their countries with nothing to slow down the flow, perhaps it made sense to put some barriers back up – the dreaded “capital controls.”  China had kept its controls up (ignoring Friedman’s advice in this regard), and it was the only country in the region that was not being ravaged by the crisis. And Malaysia had put controls back up, and they seemed to be working.

The reddening and bolding of the sentence above is not in the original text. Since I promised a punchline, I wanted to make sure you didn’t miss it.

Now that you have read a little bit of the history, can you understand why China doesn’t just jump on the advice from the West on how to run their economy?  If you were in their shoes, would you sacrifice the well being of your country to satisfy the whims of another who clearly doesn’t know beans about how to run a mixed economy?

And George Bush wondered why some countries and people hate us?


November 15, 2010

Potential corroboration is in the article China seeks to learn from mistakes of 1985 Plaza Accord. This article was published in 2006.


The Hijacked Commission

In his commentary, The Hijacked Commission, Paul Krugman analyzes what is wrong with the deficit reduction commission and their likely proposals.

It’s no mystery what has happened on the deficit commission: as so often happens in modern Washington, a process meant to deal with real problems has been hijacked on behalf of an ideological agenda. Under the guise of facing our fiscal problems, Mr. Bowles and Mr. Simpson are trying to smuggle in the same old, same old — tax cuts for the rich and erosion of the social safety net.

Can anything be salvaged from this wreck? I doubt it. The deficit commission should be told to fold its tents and go away.

The prescription that the deficit commission seems to be headed toward is remarkably like what the prescription that the IMF recommends to countries that want to borrow from the IMF. In just about every case, those that take the loan and follow the recommendations suffer great damage to their economies and people in those countries die from the results.

The Milton Friedman/Chicago School of Economics disease is about to hit this country full force if we listen to what is about to come out of this commission.


When a Safety Net Is Yanked Away [Long-Term Care Insurance] – (Lieber)

In the 13 November 2010 NY Times, Ron Lieber writes When a Safety Net Is Yanked Away.

Citing well-known challenges to the long-term care insurance industry (but without really saying what they were), MetLife said that it would stop underwriting new long-term care policies for individuals after Dec. 30. The company will also cease new enrollments to group and other plans, say, through an employer.

The company added that it would continue paying claims on existing policies as long as customers continued paying premiums. Many of them may not, however, since MetLife recently asked state insurance regulators for permission to raise premiums on many policies by as much as 44 percent.

It wasn’t the only company not charging enough for its policies. The two leading players in the industry are trying to raise prices, too. Genworth Financial is seeking an 18 percent increase on older policies held by about 25 percent of its customers. And John Hancock has filed for permission to raise premiums for about 80 percent of its customers by an average of 40 percent. It has also temporarily stopped offering new long-term care insurance plans through employers while it tries to figure out what to charge.

State regulators may not bless these requests. But it suggests how far off the companies were in pricing their products.

In Lieber’s 5 November 2010 NY Times article, Ignore Long-Term Care Planning at Your Peril, he quotes a MetLife spokeswoman, Karen Eldred,

“Assumptions used to initially price many long-term care insurance products have changed. Evolving assumptions and their impact on pricing is a challenge the industry is facing over all. The primary assumptions that have changed since the initial pricing of these products include: interest rates, persistency, morbidity and mortality experience, which have not materialized as expected.”

Lieber goes on to translate what Eldred said, and you can read that in his articles.

But, at its core, the insurers made “guesstimates” which turned out to be off the mark, and now they want the various state insurance commissioners to retroactively shift the risk back onto past policyholders, who bought their insurance policies in good faith.

Let’s hope the state governors and insurance commissioners don’t knuckle under. If you agree, write to your governor.

You might also be interested in Lieber’s 12 November 2010 blog post, The Trouble with Long-Term care Insurance. See, especially, the comments to his post.

By the way, Lieber makes reference to two academics, Amy Finklestein (MIT) and Jeffrey Brown (U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) who have written on the long-term care insurance market. If any of you wish to delve deeper, here is one place to start: The Private Market for Long-Term Care Insurance-Review of the Evidence (2008).

I consider all of this one more argument for national health insurance.

-RichardH