Via a very circuitous route that I may have a chance to explain in a subsequent post, I ran across The Hindustan Business Line article Russia’s revenge.

To be sure, what Russia did in Crimea has violated the sovereignty of Ukraine. But powerful nations violating the sovereignty of smaller countries is not something new in international politics. What’s new is the growing confidence and determination of Russia to deter the eastward expansion of the Atlantic powers to its border nations.

When Soviet Union collapsed, Russia agreed to dissolve the Warsaw Pact and let its allies go of the bind on assurance from US President George HW Bush that the NATO would not outreach to its borders. But President Bill Clinton broke this promise and pushed to expand the NATO alliance to the very borders of Russia. Though a weak Russia under Boris Yetsin was not in a position to oppose the NATO’s expansionary moves, including the ‘humanitarian’ bombing on Yugoslavia in 1998, this had left deep wounds in the Russo-American cooperation touted by Gorbachev and Bush in early 1990s.

.
.
.

Skip the trap, Kiev

It’s a dangerous geopolitical game. The balance of power in Ukraine had tilted in favour of the West when Yanukovych fell from power last month. By taking control of Crimea, Russia has stormed back. Its vital interests in Ukraine — including the Black Sea Fleet — are now safe. On Tuesday, Putin said a war with Ukraine was the “last option” – a euphemism for his willingness to talk. Kiev should pick the cues, instead of walking into the trap set by the West. A further provocation would only prompt Russia to expand its reach to more areas in Eastern Ukraine. What needs to be done is taking the Russians into confidence and assure them of security — both for the Russian speaking people in Ukraine and its strategic interests in the region. Unless that happens, Russia is unlikely to step back. And the crisis will be far from over.

Remember that India has had a long historical record of dealing with the USSR as an ally during the Cold War, so it makes sense to me that they may have an understanding of Russian thinking that may be better than ours, or at least different from ours. It’s also possible that India doesn’t seem to have a dog in this fight over the Ukraine, so there is a chance that it may be a more realistic discussion.

I stumbled across this article because I was looking for documentation of how Bill Clinton broke our promise that George HW Bush had made to Gorbachev “that the NATO would not outreach to its borders.”  I couldn’t find the article where I first read this, but I found this one instead.  Why it is important to bring up Clinton will become evident in my subsequent post.