Naked Capitalism has the article Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue,
What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists and virologists around the world are wrong, but because they’re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don’t know nearly enough about.
Call Taleb, Donald, Emmanuel, Shinzo, Angela et al. If you care enough about the lives of your people. I see a lot of rational-looking measures today, in all the lockdown variations, but I also see many countries and states clamoring for peaks to be called, and subsequent calls galore for less stringent lockdown measures. Decisions prone to be taken by politicians and epidemiologists who are -way- out of their league.
Please be careful. Call Taleb. You have nothing -more- to lose.
Here is a video that has a small part of what is in the article.
I was a fool for downplaying the value of DIY (do it yourself) masks. I wish I had been aware of Taleb’s writings on this topic back in January.
The definition of ergodic might help to understand the article.
Ergodic definition is – of or relating to a process in which every sequence or sizable sample is equally representative of the whole (as in regard to a statistical parameter).