Monthly Archives: September 2011


Dean Baker: Why Didn’t We Make These Guys Run Around Naked With Their Underpants Over Their Heads?

There is an interview on Truth OutDean Baker: Why Didn’t We Make These Guys Run Around Naked With Their Underpants Over Their Heads?

Economist Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy (CEPR) in Washington, DC. In his most recent book, “The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive,” Baker argues that the market is politically structured to ensure that income flows upward. He provides a range of strategies to reframe economic debates and offers proposals to reshape the economy to serve the interests of the majority of the population instead of a small elite. The book is available to be downloaded for free at CEPR’s web site.

This wide ranging interview gives some indications of where economists on the right and the left have gone wrong.  His discussion of what is wrong with the idea of “Loser Liberalism” economics is particularly in sync with my complaint about how progressive politicians justify their economic policies.

This is not to say that Dean Baker is without his own weaknesses.  At one point he talks about his discovery about Microsoft where he says:

I’m an economist down in D.C. and I didn’t know that Bill Gates was using every slimy hook and crook in the world to build an illegal monopoly – not a clue.

He is referring to his earlier discussion of what a reporter told him:

… Gates had been signing agreements with Compaq and Hewlett-Packard, the major computer companies at the time, where they would agree to pay him for every computer they shipped, whether or not it used DOS, the precursor to Windows. When I taught antitrust to undergraduates, the classic example was how John D. Rockefeller had the railroads pay him for every barrel of a competitor’s oil that they shipped. People dispute whether it’s true, but this was basically the same story: I was told that Bill Gates was having Compaq pay him for each computer that they shipped that had one of his competitors’ software systems.

Certainly almost all of us in the high tech electronics industry knew that Microsoft was doing this. It astounds me as much as it astounds him how he could have been so clueless.

This is an admitted weakness of understanding that Baker had that eventually corrected itself.  There are a few other weaknesses in his theories in this story that I don’t think he sees yet.

To point out one minor bone of contention, he says:

At the very least, that point where inflation rises is not stable, because we got the unemployment to 4% with little acceleration of inflation. There eventually was an uptick in inflation in 2000, but it was due to commodity prices in world markets; this had little to do with the unemployment rate in the US

There is nothing wrong with the facts of what he is pointing out.  My complaint is that he gives short shrift to understanding the factors that make the relation between inflation and unemployment shift.  On the up side of inflation, he does recognize the pressure from commodities, although some could argue that this was caused by high levels of consumption from high levels of employment.  What he doesn’t spend enough time on are the causes of keeping wage inflation in check even with relatively high employment.  There were societal shifts such as the great outsourcing of jobs that he could have mentioned.

At the beginning of the article, Baker started talking about the fallacy some economists fall into when they apply historical data to current situations.  When applying such data, it is the economist’s duty to think about whether or not there have been changes in the factors that produced the historical results.  I am just point out a case where Baker fails to apply that lesson to his own explanations.

I am not really faulting the interview, I guess.  What I am pointing out is that the reader should bring into play her or his own insights when reading anything.  Sometimes those insights can enhance what you are getting from the material you are reading.


I have downloaded the book “The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive,”. It starts with the following paragraph:

Money does not fall up. Yet the United States has experienced a massive upward redistribution of income over the last three decades, leaving the bulk of the workforce with little to show from the economic growth since 1980. This upward redistribution was not the result of the natural workings of the market. Rather, it was the result of deliberate policy, most of which had the support of the leadership of both the Republican and Democratic parties.


Obama Jobs Plan Tax Cuts Threaten Social Security

The following video explains some of the problems with Obama’s jobs plan. You have to follow along closely and sort of know what the speaker means. He sometimes gets a little tongue tied and uses words like Fed tax on cash reserves they hold for banks. He clearly means interest paid to those banks as he stated a little earlier. Later he talks about “taxing” the banks, meaning charging them instead of paying them. At that point he really means the words he is using.


Another nice feature is that the interviewee corrects Paul Jay’s incorrect assumptions in some of the questions that Jay asks.


Stimulus Tax Cuts Did Spur Growth and Create Jobs

The article Stimulus Tax Cuts Did Spur Growth and Create Jobs starts with the following:

There is a serious debate over the impact of President Obama’s stimulus. Stanford Economics Professor John Taylor, who served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs under President Bush, recently released a draft paper that purports to show that the tax cuts that were part of this stimulus had no effect on consumption. The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) is releasing a paper today that challenges Professor Taylor’s analysis.

If you are a professional economist, maybe you want to click on the link above to read more.

Otherwise, I recommend the article as a good sedative to be read at bedtime.  I could pretty much understand what was being said, but  I also do have a little background in computer modelling and a teeny-tiny understanding of statistics.   I would be willing to bet that for most voters, this will need to be translated into everyday English before they can get too excited about it.  I am not sure “excitement” is really the right word.


Democrat Warren to announce Senate candidacy targeting Scott Brown

The Boston Globe coverage of the announcement is Democrat Warren to announce Senate candidacy targeting Scott Brown.  At least for now, you can view it without having to have a subscription to the newspaper.

A senior campaign adviser has confirmed to the Globe that Warren will launch her candidacy by greeting voters across the state, beginning with a morning visit to a Boston MBTA station. She will then head to New Bedford, Framingham, Worcester, and Springfield, making similar appearances shaking hands and greeting voters.

I cannot find a clue as to where exactly she will be making appearances.

Her exploratory committee web site is www.elizabethforma.com.  Just about the only thing you can do on her website at the moment is to sign up for notifications or to donate.

There is an Elizabeth Warren Facebook page which seems to have significant activity.  You do not have to have your own Facebook page to view hers.

I have been posting everything I can on her Facebook page urging her to tell us where she will be and what we can do to help. See the discussion Topic: How To Help The Campaign


House Republicans Consider Reneging On Budget Deal To Force Even Deeper Cuts

Think Progress has the article headlined House Republicans Consider Reneging On Budget Deal To Force Even Deeper Cuts.  The article quotes from the Politico story, John Boehner tries to cut deeper on 2012 funds:

In a surprising bit of hardball, House Republicans confirmed that they had been actively considering a plan to tamper with the August budget agreement by cutting even more from 2012 spending in order to put pressure on Senate Democrats to come to terms faster on domestic bills for the coming fiscal year.

Surprisingly, the Think Progress link to the Poltico story points to page 2 of the Politico article which starts with the following:

Even Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) was skeptical about cutting the CR funding levels, and having backed the idea, Boehner’s office appeared to be stepping away, saying that $1.043 trillion is the more likely final number.

“We did reach an agreement …and I am supportive of the CR being written at that level,” Cantor said. “I think we would try always to go below it, but I think that the risk of bringing back brinksmanship or another potential shutdown is not something right now that we need.”

Now, this doesn’t sound quite as bad as the scare headline and the quote that is used by Think Progress.   Of course, if you wonder what a CR is, and even if you figure out that it is a Continuing Resolution, you might still wonder how Politico can use the abbreviation without explanation.  That is when you go back to page 1 of the story and find that Think Progress has accurately quoted from the first paragraph of the story. You also find that Politico does explain that a CR is a Continuing Resolution.

I post this story only for the people who think that you can negotiate new concessions from the Republicans when they haven’t really bought into their 2% concession and your 98% concession that they agreed to on the last issue.


72 Percent Disagree With Perry That Social Security Is A ‘Monstrous Lie’ |

The brief item 72 Percent Disagree With Perry That Social Security Is A ‘Monstrous Lie’ was on the Think Progress web site.  Of course, polls are not real news, but the result taken from the CNN poll:

The Social Security system has been described as a “monstrous lie” and as a failure. Do you think those phrases are an accurate description of the Social Security system, or don’t you think so?

Sept. 9-11
2011
Accurate 27%
Not accurate 72%
No opinion 1%

is a nice complement to my post, Why a Pay-As-You-Go System (Social Security) is not like a Ponzi scheme.  It shows that the vast majority of those polled believe that what Tea Partiers like to hear is recognizing as a lie filled sack of something.  Of course that does not mean that they will refrain from voting for a politician who says these things.

The other thing I take from this is that if we keep pounding the message that this is pack of lies at least as often as any politician repeats the lie, then there is hope that the voters are listening.  The moment we stop countering the lies, people will start believing them.  The politicians who spout these lies know that  they have a short half-life, so they know they have to keep repeating them.  Unfortunately the truth has just as short if not a shorter half-life as the lies.


Why a Pay-As-You-Go System (Social Security) is not like a Ponzi scheme

The following excerpt comes from Mark Thoma’s post SSA Historical Research Note #25: Ponzi Schemes vs. Social Security:

The Logic of Pay-As-You-Go Systems In contrast to a Ponzi scheme, dependent upon an unsustainable progression, a common financial arrangement is the so-called “pay-as-you-go” system. Some private pension systems, as well as Social Security, have used this design. A pay-as-you-go system can be visualized as a pipeline, with money from current contributors coming in the front end and money to current beneficiaries paid out the back end.

There is a superficial analogy between pyramid or Ponzi schemes and pay-as-you-go programs in that in both money from later participants goes to pay the benefits of earlier participants. But that is where the similarity ends. A pay-as-you-go system can be visualized as a simple pipeline, with money from current contributors coming in the front end and money to current beneficiaries paid out the back end.

So we could image that at any given time there might be, say, 40 million people receiving benefits at the back end of the pipeline; and as long as we had 40 million people paying taxes in the front end of the pipe, the program could be sustained forever. It does not require a doubling of participants every time a payment is made to a current beneficiary, or a geometric increase in the number of participants. (There does not have to be precisely the same number of workers and beneficiaries at a given time–there just needs to be a fairly stable relationship between the two.) As long as the amount of money coming in the front end of the pipe maintains a rough balance with the money paid out, the system can continue forever. There is no unsustainable progression driving the mechanism of a pay-as-you-go pension system and so it is not a pyramid or Ponzi scheme…

I originally saw the excerpt on Brad DeLong’s blog in the article Social Security as a Non-Ponzi Scheme.  It is hard to identify who is writing and who is editorializing on things that come from Brad DeLong’s blog, so I post the trail here for those readers to whom it might make a difference.

To me the hallmarks of a Ponzi scheme are:

  1. Offering unbelievably high returns on an investment.
  2. Requiring a clearly impossible, perpetual, geometric increase in the number of new investors to sustain the unbelievable payouts to the earlier investors.

Given the claims of the detractors of Social Security that the retiree could get a better return by investing privately than by putting money into Social Security, Social Security is not offering unbelievably high returns. It is actually offering lower returns.  If allowed by the politicians to be run like a private pension system (not individual accounts invested at retail by the beneficiary),  Social Security could pay higher returns than it does now.

The number of new investors compared to earlier investors is known to rise and fall over the lifetime of Social Security, but there is no perpetual geometric increase (I just said sometimes it decreases), and yet the system is able to maintain stability for the foreseeable future.

So neither of these two major hallmarks of Ponzi schemes is present in the Social Security system.  These facts are clear even to the people who claim that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme.  What does that tell you about the people who make such claims?

If the detractors were clear (I can’t say “honest”) about their claims, they would be saying,

“Social Security is not a Ponzi scheme because it offers a substandard return on your investment. If that doesn’t make you want to opt out of Social Security, then you should know that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme.”

Then the judgment on their veracity would be easier to make.