JaneS sent me a link to a Plymouth Daily News article, Running for President in 2016 instead of for Senator in 2012. I derived the headline for this post from the wording in the link to the article. [Actually it was the link on the front page of the newpaper that said 2012 Brown vs Warren race starting to look like the 2010 Brown vs Coakley shocker. I never noticed that my titled did match the actual title of the article. I also did not even look at the picture at the top of the article before I titled this post.][When I go back to the newspaper’s front page, I don’t even see the title that I thought belonged to the article. The link has a popup title when you hover over it that says Is she running for President in 2016 instead of for Senator in 2012. Of course that may change by the time you get to the article.]

To give you just a flavor of the devastating article, I will include the teaser below:

I have spoken to local town committee chairs who are so put-off by the Warren staff that they are sitting out her campaign and spending their time working “for people I like,” as one put it to me.

The Warren campaign staff gets paid. Local town chairs and activists work for free. No one works for free for someone unless they like them, and that ain’t happening here for Elizabeth Warren.

Here’s what the Warren staff asked unpaid Cape Cod Democratic Town Committees to do last week in 20-degree weather:

• Canvass neighborhoods in Bourne, Mashpee, Hyannis, Yarmouth and Dennis that have a large number of registered voters that did not vote in the 2010 election to discuss the importance of the 2012 election cycle.
• Collect nomination signatures to get Elizabeth Warren and other participating local Democrats on the ballot (if you choose).
• Distribute literature for Elizabeth and answer questions these voters may have about the 2012 election.

Canvassing door to door may work in urban areas, but it is anathema in the boonies where older and more affluent voters live.

I am amazed at how the newspaper article fits right in with my own experience.

I had to think about it for a while to figure out the logic of the actual headline on the article. Is it Warren that is actually running for President in 2016 rather than Senator in 2012? If so, she could do us all a favor by getting out and throwing her support to Marisa DeFranco.

Or could it be Deval Patrick who will run for President in 2016 using the Elizabeth Warren message that never got out?

2012/02/20 update

Via Facebook, I have been corresponding with a person familiar with the Warren campaign and received some information that helps put The Plymouth Daily News article in perspective.

In his message, he said,

…My own view of it is that all polls should be taken seriously, even if you think they are crap. The key message here is that nothing is certain. If we fight as though it is true, we will win by 10 points more, even if it isn’t true.

Now for the positive news. The Poll is crap. It was filled with leading questions, (eg: “Do you think Scott Brown is a leader”, “Do you think ELizabeth warren is a radical intellectual”) run by a Pollster who is very close to Mitt Romney. It did not account for the fact that still 30% of the MA population (including many Democrats) doesn’t know who Elizabeth Warren is. A poll a few days earlier took exactly this iinto account and yielded a lead for Warren in a statistical tie. However, despite all that, the Poll represents something even if it is not predictive. Since no Polls at this stage of an election are really predictive, it is what it is and we circle back to the fact that I think all polls carry some useful insight.

I attended Elizabeth Warren’s appearance in Ware today.  Another member of the Sturbridge Democratic Town Committee attended. In an email, CarolM remarked:

I feel we should support her fully as a strong, knowledgeable, passionately committed candidate who will fight for equality of opportunity and a “level playing field” in America and who would no doubt be formidable in a political debate against Scott Brown!

I replied with an agreement and a “but”.

I agree about Warren’s message. She has a nice, coherent story that ties together the role of government in creating the environment for us all to succeed. When she tells the history from the depression era through the 1980s and into the 2000s where she describes what we as a country did right to get us to our pre-eminent position in the world and what we started failing to do since the 1980s, it makes a wonderful counter to the story the Republicans have been selling since Goldwater lost to Johnson.

I have to put one fly in the ointment that worries me, though.

In a “debate” with Scott Brown, she won’t have 15 minutes of uninterrupted time to give this shpiel. This is one of the reasons why she needs to debate Marisa DeFranco while the electorate is not even watching. Consider DeFranco as the sparring partner that would get Warren into shape for the real fight.

After watching the “debate” in Lowell (see Warren shines in debate debut), I commented,

I was not that impressed with Elizabeth Warren.

The format was a mix of long form answers that lasted 1 minute, and quick answers that were supposed to take 10 to 15 seconds. This is not a format that a champion debater has honed her skills on. Debate skills are almost useless in this format.

The skill you need is to quickly come up with a short answer to a surprise question that finds the pithiest reflection of your deepest beliefs.

There was one person there who managed to do this for almost every question. That woman was Marisa DeFranco. I had never heard of her before. Until tonight, I didn’t know she was running.

Being charitable to the Warren staff, they seem so devoted and committed to her, that they won’t brook any mention of any possible problems. I wish I could get my message through to them, but every time I try they throw me out of the campaign.

Maybe I am being paranoid, but when Elizabeth saw me close up in Ware, she seemed to be almost frightened to get close enough to talk to me. (Her field organizer, GregM, definitely knows who I am.) (I suppose it could have been that I forgot to shave this morning.)

If anybody else knows how to deliver this message in a tactful manner that might get listened to, please feel free to use any of my ideas or words along with your own to get through to the campaign.

I have liked the story about the economy that Warren can explain since even before she was running. I have a number of her lectures and interviews posted on this blog.  Since she started to campaign, I have seen much progress on her part in honing that message so that she can deliver its essence in a relatively short amount of time.  She did not speak that long in Ware, but she managed to deliver a beautifully put together and coherent story as I said above.  If the electorate ever gets to hear the whole pitch, I think they would be convinced.  My fear is that there are very few forums where she can deliver that message so that  enough of the voters will get to hear it.