Daily Archives: June 16, 2014


New Exercise Machine

I didn’t know it at the time, but I now realize that I have bought a new exercise machine that I can and do use for hours on end.

Deck Swing

Yesterday, I had it loaded up with about 480 pounds of people (including myself) and I was the pusher. My calves are really feeling it today. We walked our standard walk about 2% faster today.


Central Banks Goose Stock Markets

Naked Capitalism has reprinted the story Central Banks Goose Stock Markets.

China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has become “the world’s largest public sector holder of equities”, according to officials quoted by Omfif. “In a new development, it appears that PBoC itself has been directly buying minority equity stakes in important European companies,” Omfif adds.

You didn’t really think they would hold their foreign reserves in a way that bore no interest and no control in other countries, did you?

Of course, there are well founded fears that such intervention, including massive growth in reserves, has led to such a benign period of volatility and the expectation of continued price appreciation is cooking “the goose” that laid the golden egg.

In Europe, two years of stimulus from the ECB has pushed the various bourses to record valuations, as measured by the price-to-earnings ratio, which is also pushing the boundaries of delusion when it comes to chasing yield.

This is the sort of thing that makes me worry about the stock market. I am a follower of Investment Quality Trends which uses the history of dividend yields for each stock it tracks to judge the value of the stock at the moment.

I keep oscillating between two thoughts about IQT and the current market. First, I wonder if the measures that IQT uses need to be adjusted because we have entered a new age of yield environment. An historically low yield might undervalue a stock in today’s environment. Then I say to myself, this time it is not different. The yield environment will return to normal sooner or later, and it will have been wise for IQT to stay with the longer term historical record.

With so few undervalued stocks in the IQT universe of stocks it considers, I have taken to having about twice as much in ultra-liquid investments in my portfolio as I have had historically. Even though I have felt I have had more cash in my portfolio in recent years than I would ultimately want, it is now double the rate it has been since I retired. By the conventional wisdom, I probably have less cash and liquid assets than the normal investor my age would have. The level of cash is just high for me.

This is not investment advice. Keep in mind that two stocks I sold recently because of more than 8 quarters without a dividend increase have jumped over 5% in a single day since I sold them. (That does not change my mind that I did the right thing. You may have a different opinion, and you may very well be right.)