Yearly Archives: 2014


Michael Pettis: Is China Really Turning Away from the Dollar?

Naked Capitalism has the post Michael Pettis: Is China Really Turning Away from the Dollar?

Yves Smith introduces the article with the following comment:

Yves here. This important post by Michael Pettis addresses whether the efforts of the Chinese to diversify their foreign investments away from the dollar will be a negative for the US. Pettis is skeptical of that thesis, and some of his reasons are intriguing. Like quite a few experts, he doubts that China’s role in sponsoring an infrastructure bank will be a game changer, and he also points out, as we have regularly, that the Chinese cannot deploy their foreign exchange reserves domestically without driving the renminbi to the moon (via selling foreign currencies to buy RMB), which is the last thing they want to have happen. A more surprising, but well argued thesis is that reduced Chinese purchases of US bonds would be a net plus for the US. Get a cup of coffee. This is a meaty, important article.

By meaty article, she probably means there is more information in here than most of us can understand and digest in one reading or without additional reading on our part.  I handle this problem by recording the link to the article on my blog so I can go back to the article if I am so inclined.  The other way I handle the complexity is to assume that if I read enough of these articles, that the knowledge accumulates to the point where you understand more and more of the content of these articles. (That is how I have come to understand some of Modern Money Theory.)

If you don’t read these articles because you cannot understand all of it, then you will only delay the day when you will start to understand the subject matter or postpone that day of understanding forever.


It’s better to fight and lose than not to fight at all

Got an email from Elizabeth Warren. I wish President Obama would have learned the lesson that sometimes it is important to fight even if you don’t win the current battle.

Don’t miss the quote from The Hill:

“One senior financial industry executive said the dust-up over the funding bill has forced the industry to recalibrate its lobbying priorities for the coming year. Given Warren’s megaphone, the executive said, getting through the next Congress without new restrictions on large banks would constitute a win.”

Below is the email.

Elizabeth Warren for Massachusetts

Washington is rigged for those who can hire armies of lawyers and lobbyists. Last week, we got a close look at what really goes on.

House Republicans slipped a provision into the must-pass, omnibus budget package in a secret, closed-door deal. Citigroup lobbyists literally wrote the provision to weaken the new rules on Wall Street and make it easier for the biggest banks to get bailed out again in the future. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon personally called up members of Congress to lobby for their votes.

Nobody likes bailouts. Democrats don’t like bailouts. Republicans don’t like bailouts. But Wall Street proved again that with enough money and enough power, they can tilt the playing field in Washington a little more in their favor.

I fought my heart out against that provision last week. So did tens of thousands of people who signed petitions, who called their representatives, who tweeted and Facebooked, and who spoke out about it.

We lost this time. But here’s what I want you to remember: It’s better to fight and lose than not to fight at all.

It’s better to fight because if you don’t fight, you can’t win. Besides, even when you don’t win, you can change the game. Here’s a snippet from an article in The Hill newspaper earlier this week that shows what I mean:

We know that our job is going to get tougher in 2015. Mitch McConnell has been saying for months – both out in the public and in secret meetings with the Koch brothers – what his plan will be when Republicans take control of the Senate: use every trick and political game they can think of to undermine President Obama and grind the government’s work to a halt.

That’s why it’s more important than ever to fight back for working families. To fight back for people who couldn’t get health insurance for years and don’t want Republicans to take their new insurance away. To fight back for Social Security and Medicare so seniors can retire with dignity. To fight back for the environment so our grandkids will be able to breathe the air and drink the water. To fight back for accountability and a level playing field so nobody steals your purse on Main Street, or your pension on Wall Street.

That’s why we’re here: To fight the big fights. We won’t always win, but darn it, we’re going to try.

I wanted to take a moment to say thank you. Thank you for your support, for your time, for your voice, and for your fight. We’re a team, you and I. I never forget that.

Thank you for being a part of this,

Elizabeth

All content © 2014 Elizabeth for MA, All Rights Reserved
PO Box 290568
Boston, MA 02129
Paid for by Elizabeth for MA



Warren’s Display of Backbone Threatens Career as Democrat

Andy Borowitz’s Facebook post Warren’s Display of Backbone Threatens Career as Democrat may predate the video below by Jon Keller. Borowitz said:

“She stood up for what she believed in and didn’t try to water it down,” said Democratic strategist Harland Dorrinson. “That is a serious violation of the Democratic playbook.”

Compare this to the thrust of Jon Keller’s report on WBZ-TV in Boston.


Spoiler Alert
Andy Borowitz is a satirist. I think Jon Keller claims to be a serious journalist.

Did Wall Street Need to Win the Derivatives Budget Fight to Hedge Against Oil Plunge?

Today Naked Capitalism posted the item Did Wall Street Need to Win the Derivatives Budget Fight to Hedge Against Oil Plunge?

Conventional wisdom among banking experts is that Wall Street’s successful fight last week to get a pet provision into the must-pass budget bill (or in political junkies’ shorthand, Cromnibus) as more a demonstration of power and a test for gutting Dodd Frank than a fight that mattered to them. But the provision they got in, which was to undo a portion of Dodd Frank that barred them from having taxpayer-backstopped deposits fund derivative positions, may prove to be more important than it seemed as the collateral damage from the 40% fall in oil prices hits investors and intermediaries.

Three days ago, I posted some comments in the article Shutdown averted following late-night drama.

It would be ironic if within days of the entire government (including President Obama) selling out the country to Wall Street, this whole CLO thing blew up in all our faces.

Every now and then it is nice to see the experts discover the same idea that I already discovered.


Republican Nightmares Come True As Bernie Sanders Gets A Big Promotion In The Senate

Politicus USA has the story Republican Nightmares Come True As Bernie Sanders Gets A Big Promotion In The Senate.

Democrats may have lost their Senate majority, but the promotion of Bernie Sanders is another sign that the left is gearing up for a fight.

Maybe the Congressional Democrats can actually do something from their minority position.  Remember that Newt Gingrich was a back bencher in the Republican delegation before he started his climb to power.  Let us just hope that the climb this time will be rapid, less than two years.


5 Awful Things Congress Snuck Into the Omnibus Budget Deal

Represent Us has the video 5 Awful Things Congress Snuck Into the Omnibus Budget Deal.


In recent days my blog posts have focused on two ot the five awful things. At a party tonight, I was reminded of some others that i think are included in this list of 5.

I am happy to hear that Lockheed Martin is benefiting from some of these shenanigans. I decided a while ago, that if we are going to get screwed by Congress’s favoritism toward Lockheed Martin, the least I could do is to take the hint and make some money from it. So Lockheed Martin has become one of my 20 stock positions. I’d gladly give up the investment as soon as Congress stops getting bought off by Lockheed Martin.


No Senate vote yet on $1.1 trillion spending bill

CBS News has some good news in the article No Senate vote yet on $1.1 trillion spending bill.

It will be Monday at the earliest before the Senate votes on a $1.1 trillion government funding bill passed by the House on Thursday night.
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At least 60 senators must agree to end debate on the larger spending package and move toward a vote of the full Senate — a procedure called cloture. A cloture vote will likely take place very early Sunday morning, setting up a final vote Monday.

Do I have to eat humble pie and say thank goodness I didn’t get what I wished for, the end of the filibuster rule?  So it only takes 41 Senators to put a halt to this obscene piece of legislation.  Wow, how lucky we still have that crazy rule.  It may save our bacon at least until the Republicans take over the Senate in 2015.

Whatever good you can say that President Obama has done during his term, he has only been playing around the periphery of the central problem.  Until we solve the central problem of the takeover of our government by the super wealthy oligarchs, then little progress can be made.  Obama is not even in the fight over the central problem.  I don’t think he even sees it as a problem.


Can Warren and Pelosi Lead Democrats to High Ground?

The Nation has the article Can Warren and Pelosi Lead Democrats to High Ground? that I really like.

No one should imagine either Pelosi and Warren or other like-minded Democrats have an army ready to march and restore meaning to the Democratic party. What they do have, however, makes them potentially powerful. They have authenticity and sophisticated knowledge. In different ways, both know how the corrupted political system does great damage to American life. It makes them disgusted too.

I just came back from a holiday party of with the Sturbridge Democratic Town Committee.  Of course there was a lot of talk about who could run for President in 2016.  Those of us who are progressive minded talked about Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Jeff Merkley among others.  Nobody even thought of a possibility of Warren/Pelosi or the other way around.  After hearing Nancy Pelosi’s House speech against the budget bill the other day, I am going to have to give some serious thought to this.  Of course, there is nothing really to do, but to watch it play out, and give support whenever needed and where possible.


Shutdown averted following late-night drama

MSNBC has the story Shutdown averted following late-night drama.

Note that 67 House Republican broke ranks and opposed the package negotiated and endorsed by their own chamber’s leaders – that’s a little more than a fourth of the caucus – which would have been enough to kill the legislation were it not for the 57 House Democrats who rebuffed their leaders and backed the bill.


Please see my previous post Please Impeach The President Already, I Am Begging You to see Nancy Pelosi’s explanation of all that is wrong with this bill.

I am wondering how a certain friend of mine will react to this news. He believes that the younger generation of voters is thirsting for bipartisan compromise. Is this the kind of compromise that would satisfy him? In return for funding the government with a bill that both sides could compromise on, at the last minute, the Republican leadership added what should have been a poison pill. They are providing government funded protection to huge Wall Street banks to take excessive risks. As Nancy Pelosi points out, if the risks pay off, the bank executives get to walk away with the proceeds. If the risks lead to disaster as they did in 2008, the bank executives just walk away, and we tax payers pick up the losses.

I have been hearing about something called Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO). See the April 2014 Fortune Magazine article Collateralized loan obligations: Our next financial nightmare.

Greed, stupidity, and slack government oversight fueled the mortgage bubble. The same thing seems to be happening today, but this time with leveraged loans and junk bonds.


Do voters think that the timing of rushing this poison pill part of the bill into law is just a bit of protection that will never be needed? I think Jonathan Gruber’s remarks have been completely vindicated by this action of the Republican Congressional leadership. It would be ironic if within days of the entire government (including President Obama) selling out the country to Wall Street, this whole CLO thing blew up in all our faces.

Perhaps, this time, when the government bails out the banks, they will nationalize them like they should have done the last time. (And put a slew of bank executives in jail.)


Ali Soufan: Torture contractors shocked CIA interrogators

MSNBC has the segment from The Rachel Maddow Show, Ali Soufan: Torture contractors shocked CIA interrogators.

Ali Soufan, former FBI special agent who took part in the interrogation of Abu Zubaydah, talks with Rachel Maddow about how the Senate torture report squares with his experience and why the CIA switched to torture interrogations they knew don’t work.


For a long time I have known about the claim from professional interrogators that torture is a counterproductive technique. This is the reason why I am categorizing this blog post under Greenberg’s Law of Counterproductive behavior “If you see a behavior that seems to you to be counterproductive, perhaps you have misunderstood what the behavior was trying to produce.”

This especially applies to the ordinary citizens who still want to torture suspects. Are they just ignorant of the facts about torture, or do they have some ulterior motive that I cannot even guess?

And now that I think about it, what about people in the Bush White House? What were their motives? Were they actually trying to silence the suspects lest they implicate the Bush administration or its allies?