Daily Archives: April 7, 2015


Draghi’s Doom Loop(s): More than just the euthanasia of the rentiers

New Economic Perspectives has the article Draghi’s Doom Loop(s): More than just the euthanasia of the rentiers.

Rather, the implementation of QE with a large and increasing share of the bond market displaying negative yields to maturity (NYTM) presents a number of serious challenges to financial stability in the eurozone.

To cut to the chase, the ECB’s QE and NDRP [negative deposit rate policy] measures may be setting investors up for a discontinuous price event, much like what was experienced in the equity market meltdown back in October 1987. Even if a disruptive yield spike is avoided, or even contained and reversed by ECB heroics, pursuing QE under NYTM market conditions may lead to a significant dampening down of bank and insurance company profitability. In the extreme, the solvency of key eurozone financial institutions could once again come under question. This could further complicate the ECB’s chances of achieving their 2% inflation goal, as it may dampen the bank lending channel as a key transmission mechanism for unconventional monetary policy.

As if you didn’t have enough to worry about here comes a game of musical chairs based on the greater fool theory.  You don’t want to be the target greater fool in this scenario.  This is one reason why I just do not understand how anybody could be invested in long duration bonds at the time that they are at a market peak.  I know they keep climbing beyond any previous existing peak, you have to ask yourself how long can this go on.  Well, it’s not really a question of how long it can go on, but more of a question of will you know to get out before the sudden large drop in bond prices.

Maybe if you watch your bonds like a hawk 24/7 365 days a year, you could be successful. I know that I do not follow my investments closely enough to play in this game.


Netanyahu slips, Reveals reason for Opposition to Iran Deal

Informed Comment has the article Netanyahu slips, Reveals reason for Opposition to Iran Deal.

US television news isn’t very good and it has clearly gotten worse over the past 20 years. In the aftermath of the Kerry-Zarif initial framework deal on nuclear energy in Iran, it seems obvious that an interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif would be newsworthy. But to my knowledge none of the networks or major cable news shows had him on.

Or you could have talked to the British, French, German, Russian or Chinese foreign ministers, all of whom were principals and all of whom would have had interesting insights.

Instead, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was given repeated access to millions of Americans to talk trash about the deal over the weekend and to make mostly false allegations about its contours.

Have you ever wondered what television news is actually for?  I mean besides making money for its owners.  Education of the public isn’t even a distant second, it seems.

Sorry, you’ll actually have to read the article to see how Netanyahu slipped.