SteveG


Crash of Outsourcing Giant Capita with 70,000 Employees Globally Sparks New Panic

Naked Capitalism has the article Crash of Outsourcing Giant Capita with 70,000 Employees Globally Sparks New Panic.

Since the sudden downfall of the British infrastructure giant Carillion two weeks ago, investors’ nerves in London are frayed. And short-sellers, scanning the horizon for their next prey, seem to have found it.

Its name is Capita. It is one of the UK government’s biggest outsourcing firms with contracts to provide services to government entities, such as NHS cleaning, school dinners, and prison maintenance. It has 70,000 employees in the UK, Europe, South Africa, and India.

I have been expecting a huge market correction for a few years now. I also figured that the recent surge of the stock market was a bubble based on corrupt practices in the world financial system. I just didn’t know exactly where the corruption would be exposed. I was unaware of this particular situation in England.

I can hardly wait for the US stock market opening on Monday.


Flu Vaccine: Half a Statistic Is Worse Than None 1

NBC Nightly News had a story Growing concern over children dying of the flu.


There is one statement in the report that is a perfect example of how the media mislead you with half a statistic.

The report never told you what this number means. What did they expect you to learn from this? I can think of three possible conclusions you could take depending on what is the value of the statistic they did not report. What they failed to report was what percentage of the children who survived were never vaccinated.

In the figures below I have chosen three possible values for the missing statistics of the percentage of children who were not vaccinated that survived. Above each graph, I have put a label of what you might be able to conclude given any one of the green bars compared to the red bar.

In the above figure, of the children who survived they had a lower percentage of not being vaccinated so you might conclude there was an advantage to being vaccinated.

In the above figure, of the children who survived they had the same percentage of not being vaccinated so you might conclude there was neither an advantage nor a disadvantage to being vaccinated.

In the above figure, of the children who survived they had a higher percentage of not being vaccinated so you might conclude there was a disadvantage to being vaccinated.

Without seeing a green bar, there is nothing you can conclude from seeing the red bar alone. You might have concluded that certainly the vaccine had whatever advantage or disadvantage you had assumed before seeing the number. In other words, this half statistic may have made you more sure of the wrong thing.


Nomi Prins: Trump’s Financial Arsonists

Naked Capitalism has the article Nomi Prins: Trump’s Financial Arsonists.

Here is the conclusion of the article.

Nearly every regulatory institution in Trumpville tasked with monitoring the financial system is now run by someone who once profited from bending or breaking its rules. Historically, severe financial crises tend to erupt after periods of lax oversight and loose banking regulations. By filling America’s key institutions with representatives of just such negligence, Trump has effectively hired a team of financial arsonists.

Naturally, Wall Street views Trump’s chosen ones with glee. Amid the present financial euphoria of the stock market, big bank stock prices have soared. But one thing is certain: when the next crisis comes, it will leave the last meltdown in the shade because our financial system is, at its core, unreformed and without adult supervision. Banks not only remain too big to fail but are still growing, while this government pushes policies guaranteed to put us all at risk again.

There’s a pattern to this: first, there’s a crash; then comes a period of remorse and talk of reform; and eventually comes the great forgetting. As time passes, markets rise, greed becomes good, and Wall Street begins to champion more deregulation. The government attracts deregulatory enthusiasts and then, of course, there’s another crash, millions suffer, and remorse returns.

Ominously, we’re now in the deregulation stage following the bull run. We know what comes next, just not when. Count on one thing: it won’t be pretty.

I am still invested in the stock market, but I have some cash protection to tide me through the next crash. The pundits are claiming that “cash is trash” at this juncture because cash won’t make money like stocks will. On the other hand, cash won’t lose money like stocks will (unless of course we have rapid inflation).

To offset Elizabeth Warren’s bragging, Yves Smith wrote an introduction to the article part of which had the following to say:

The CFPB has also been underwhelming under Obama. Obama chose Richard Cordray, who from his days as Ohio attorney general was a known “all hat, no cattle” type. He was late to implement a payday lending rule, and by virtue of it not becoming effective until after Trump took office, it was reversed. The CFPB’s biggest accomplishment is arguably its complaints database, but even then, it did not use it to maximum advantage. The Los Angeles Times, and following them, the Los Angeles prosecutor, identified the Wells Fargo fake account abuses. As regular readers know, when the press reported on the scale of the violations, the CFPB, which acted as the lead regulator on the sanctions, was criticized for not going after Wells executives.


Adam Schiff Just Ripped Paul Ryan And Devin Nunes A New One Over Memo

Politicususa has the article Adam Schiff Just Ripped Paul Ryan And Devin Nunes A New One Over Memo.

The Republican document mischaracterizes highly sensitive classified information that few Members of Congress have seen, and which Chairman Nunes himself chose not to review. It fails to provide vital context and information contained in DOJ’s FISA application and renewals, and ignores why and how the FBI initiated, and the Special Counsel has continued, its counterintelligence investigation into Russia’s election interference and links to the Trump campaign.

This is the way to discuss this controversy as opposed to trying to suppress information.

Here is another side to the story. I am not going to call it “the other side” as if there were only two ways to think about this Russiagate obsession.


Russiagate is Dangerous, Will Washington Get the Memo?

The Real News Network has the interview Russiagate is Dangerous, Will Washington Get the Memo?

The partisan fight over Rep. Devin Nunes’ memo is consuming Washington and even leading prominent liberals to question if Nunes is a Russian agent. Russia scholar Stephen F. Cohen of Princeton University says Russiagate has now become “much more than McCarthyism.”

This is not the first time I have posted items from Stephen Cohen. See my previous post Rethinking Putin: A Talk by Professor Stephen F. Cohen.


Nunes Memo That Claims FBI Conspiracy to Take Down Trump

Alternet has the article Read It: House GOP Releases Controversial Nunes Memo That Claims FBI Conspiracy to Take Down Trump.

House Republicans on Friday released a controversial memo written by Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) that alleges a conspiracy within the FBI to bring down President Donald Trump.

You can read it for yourself. You can decide what of this memo you believe. If there are errors of fact in what Nunes says, then he can be rebutted. I doubt you will incur serious brain damage if you read what he has written.

When will the powers that be understand that trying to suppress documents is counterproductive? There is a reason why our founding ancestors thought we needed a First Amendment to the Constitution. You have to wonder if the powers that be understand why we have the First Amendment.

Always remember Greenberg’s Law Of Counterproductive Behavior.

If you see a behavior that seems to you to be counterproductive, perhaps you have misunderstood what that behavior is meant to produce.


Worker Who Sent Hawaii False Alert Thought Missile Attack Was Imminent

NPR has the article Worker Who Sent Hawaii False Alert Thought Missile Attack Was Imminent.

The midnight shift supervisor played a recording over the phone that includes the correct drill language “EXERCISE, EXERCISE, EXERCISE” — but also erroneously contained the text of an Emergency Alert System message for a live ballistic missile alert, including the language “THIS IS NOT A DRILL.” The recording ended by saying “EXERCISE, EXERCISE, EXERCISE.”

This could have been an episode of the old Art Linkletter show “People Do the Funniest Things”. (I know that wasn’t the real name of that show, look it up.)

Imagine what would happen if the system got completely automated, and a robot had to decide what to do with the conflicts in the recorded message. Do you think the people programming the robot would have thought about this possibility?


Kids Say the Darndest Things.

The show’s best-remembered segment was “Kids Say the Darndest Things”, in which Linkletter interviewed schoolchildren between the ages of five and ten. During the segment’s 27-year run, Linkletter interviewed an estimated 23,000 children.[3] The popularity of the segment led to a TV series with the same title hosted by Bill Cosby on CBS-TV from January 1998 to June 2000.


Just think about the midnight shift supervisor who wanted to do a training exercise. The proper response to an exercise was to not send a message to the public. So did the supervisor expect that the workers were supposed to do nothing in response to the exercise? Would the workers pass the tests by ignoring the exercise? Would the workers have failed the test by sending a false message to the public? What was the supervisor prepared to do in case the workers failed the test?


Pentagon Papers – Mistakes of Ho Chi Minh

In my reading of Pentagon Papers up to this point it has been all about the blunders of the French and Americans. However, I have now come to a reference to some problems on the North Vietnam side.

It starts with something that Eisenhower said.

President Eisenhower is widely quoted to the effect that in 1954 as many as 80% of the Vietnamese people would have voted for Ho Chi Minh, as the popular hero of their liberation, in an election against Bao Dai. In October 1955, Diem ran against Bao Dai in a referendum and won—by a dubiously overwhelming vote, but he plainly won nevertheless. It is almost certain that by 1956 the proportion which might have voted for Ho—in a free election against Diem—would have been much smaller than 80%.

The explanation for the smaller vote for Ho Chi Minh comes in this excerpt.

The North Vietnamese themselves furnished damning descriptions of conditions within the DRV in 1955 and 1956. Vo Nguyen Giap, in a public statement to his communist party colleagues, admitted in autumn, 1956, that:

“We made too many deviations and executed too many honest people. We attacked on too large a front and, seeing enemies everywhere, resorted to terror, which became far too widespread. . . . Whilst carrying out our land reform program we failed to respect the principles of freedom of faith and worship in many areas . . . in regions inhabited by minority tribes we have attacked tribal chiefs too strongly, thus injuring, instead of respecting, local customs and manners. . . . When reorganizing the party, we paid too much importance to the notion of social class instead of adhering firmly to political qualifications alone. Instead of recognizing education to be the first essential, we resorted exclusively to organizational measures such as disciplinary punishments, expulsion from the party, executions, dissolution of party branches and calls. Worse still, torture came to be regarded as a normal practice during party reorganization.”

I remember back to a book that I had read around 2009. (See my previous post War Fever at the Times: A Five-Day Log). In this post, I talk about the book Perfect Spy: The Incredible Double Life of Pham Xuan An, Time Magazine Reporter and Vietnamese Communist Agent.

Another thing that I learned from this book. When you see a local government figure carrying out policies that are clearly antithetical to the cause, maybe you don’t understand what cause the person is working for.

On page 148, “… Thao operated as one of the most trusted aides to Diem and was generally hailed as one of the South’s most successful anti-Communist crusaders. …”

On page 149, “Thao became one of the strongest advocates for agrovilles, self-contained modern villages aimed at separating insurgents from the rural population by moving peasants into large, well-defended villages that would allow the government to protect them. Thao knew the program would alienate peasants, and that is why he became its strongest proponent. The peasants hated agrovilles for many reasons, beginning with the fact that they were required to help build them and then move from their homes. The program produced protests and alienation toward Diem. When it was disbanded, Thao focused on strategic hamlets, convincing Diem to move quickly rather than slowly, which would elevate hostility and alienate the peasants. …”

How could Thao do that, you ask? Here is the part that I left out. On page 148, “Perhaps the most intriguing case of espionage involved Colonel Pham Ngoc Thao, whose mission was to destabilize the anti-Communist government of South Vietnam. …”

What I didn’t know about when I read this book was the quote above from General Giap from the Pentagon Papers. Perhaps the idea for the use of agrovilles by Diem in the south was born of what the spy learned from mistakes that were made in the north. By the way, I do not think that the authors of the Pentagon Papers had access to the information about the spy Colonel Pham Ngoc Thao.


Elizabeth Warren Evades Answering The Obvious Question

YouTube has the video Senator Elizabeth Warren Interview with Cenk Uygur on The Young Turks. Let me cut to the chase, and start you off with her most maddening evasion.


Cenk never puts it to her directly by mentioning that she could have changed the course of history, but she decided not to take a stand when it mattered.

By the way, here is the link to the TYT Network’s original posting Cenk Uygur hosts an interview with Senator Elizabeth Warren to discuss her new book. Buy Sen. Warren’s new book.


WATCH: Joe Biden Brags About Rigging The Ukranian Political System

YouTube has the video WATCH: Joe Biden Brags About Rigging The Ukranian Political System.


Yes, this is exactly what frustrates me about USA actions.

Admittedly, I should do some more investigation of the background of this story. Who was the prosecutor that got fired, and what did he do to merit firing? However, I think the meddling complaint would hold up no matter what the answers to these questions are.

OK, so after a miniscule amount of poking around, I came up with this Russia Feed article Joe Biden brags he got key Ukrainian official fired in exchange for money

The prosecutor general at the time, Viktor Shokin, was previously supported by the US and much of the EU, but as The New Yorker described, “after initially supporting Shokin, U.S. and E.U. officials soured on him.” Washington suddenly viewed Shokin, who had served two decades within the Prosecutor General’s office as corrupt and unwilling to initiate crackdown in major financial scandal cases involving high profile figures.

Considering the Obama administration’s record on (the absence of) prosecuting Wall Street fraud, this may be even more ironic than the claims in the video.

Of course, one could do even more digging to find out what’s the real story to who Viktor Shokin really is and why we really took a sudden dislike to him. A real investigative reporter with a sufficient amount of skepticism would not stop where I have.