Finance is Super Rational about Profits, Irrational about Global Economy – Flassbeck (2/3)
The Real News Network as the second part of the interview Finance is Super Rational about Profits, Irrational about Global Economy – Flassbeck (2/3). I commented on the first part of the interview in my previous post Krugman is Wrong About the Market and Hot Money – Flassbeck (1/3).
Honestly, I had not seen this part before I made my comments on the last part. This part starts off answering the question I posed and in almost exactly the way I surmised it would.
JAY: So I’m going to just pick up where we left off in part one. If you haven’t watched part one, I suggest you do so.
So, Heiner, you have proposed a model which I think we should get into about what a more rational exchange rate global system of currency exchange would look like. So talk a bit about it. But I’m going to very quickly kind of get to the question–there is a sort of rationality to what’s going on. In other words, if you’re sitting on great big pools of money and you’re making killings off all this volatility, I mean, you are being rational in a sense, aren’t you?
FLASSBECK: Absolutely. From a microeconomic point of view, these people are rational. They are super rational. And they’re making a lot of money, as I said. So that’s absolutely clear.
But we have to ask the question whether it’s rational from a macroeconomic point of view, from a global point of view, and there it’s definitely not, because what happens is–and I said it in the first part–what we have is money carried from low interest rate countries to high interest rate countries. But that implies at the same time, because interest rates are low, because the inflation rate is low in Switzerland and Japan and the euro area, in the United States, that implies that money is carried from low-inflation countries to high-inflation countries. Turkey, the inflation rate is not super high, but it’s 7 percent. In Argentina we all know it’s much higher. In Brazil it’s a bit higher.
And this means, this implies absolutely clearly and obviously that the currency, as long as the hot money flows into the high-inflation country, the currency of the high-inflation country is appreciated. This is exactly the opposite of what we expect from a functioning market.
I am hoping the third part will have more details on the proposed solution.
